Predictably, Bangladesh is courting more trouble than its new rulers can handle. In the months following the forced resignation and exit of Sheikh Hasina from the long-held Prime Ministerial post and from the country to a safe haven in India in August last, the scenario in Bangladesh is steadily deteriorating on multiple fronts. The new set of ‘leaders’ running the interim administration under Nobel-Laureate Muhammad Yunus has not been able to restore normalcy in the country while Hasina’s large swarm of Awami League followers are simply biding their time. To add to this, reports are that internal revolts in the Army are likely. Multiple power centres, each with its own command in the form of generals, are seen to be working at cross purposes. This was only to be expected as Hasina retained strong support from major segments of the military.
Yunus’ expectation of getting American protection has proven to be a mirage. This, even as the US may have its own interests to protect and promote in Bangladesh and the geographical region spanning the subcontinent. Yet, the Americans are understandably hesitant to go beyond a point to support the illegitimate power arrangement there. There has been no serious attempt on the part of the interim government to call elections and arrange a transfer of power to the people’s representatives. Its lack of legitimacy will, in the long run, cause multiple problems for it in terms of international cooperation. Yunus has proven to be unfit to lead the government and this is evident from his vacillation on many fronts. He lacks the guts and political experience to lead a government. As a result, segments of the administration have already begun disobeying the central authority. Its manifestation is evident now in the army as well.
Bangladesh is not Pakistan when it comes to military might. Dhaka cannot expect India to provide its security cover as New Delhi had done at the time of separation of East Pakistan from Islamabad’s control and establishment of Bangladesh as a new nation in the first lap of the 1970s. China cannot step in with military support for Bangladesh, as it could lead to direct intervention from the US and the West to counter such a move. Nor can Pakistan afford to help Bangladesh beyond a point in terms of military support. The Indian government is mindful of the fact that it must protect its regional interests and its own security from a future alliance of China and Pakistan vis-à-vis Bangladesh. The large mass base for Sheikh Hasina, even now, cannot be lost sight of. The Yunus-led interim government is mindful of this even as it keeps demanding her extradition from India to Bangladesh. India would not respond to such a demand as it comes from a regime that lacks legitimacy.
