India’s early morning strikes into areas occupied by terror outfits inside Pakistan was a calculated move intended to avoid civilian casualties but to hit at the heart of the terror architecture there. This was a strategic response considering the audacious attack on tourists only of a particular religion, at Pahalgam on April 22 – an attack that claimed 26 innocent lives. India has responded to the Pahalgam saga with what military strategists call a strike with smart, multi-domain precision. At present when both India and Pakistan are nuclear-capable a full-scale war with Pakistan would be infructuous due to nuclear risks. India has a wide range of conventional and unconventional warfare options with each carrying different levels of impact, escalation, and risk but it is to India’s advantage to extract a cost from Pakistan without triggering a catastrophic conflict.
In terms of military strength, India has 14 lakh troops whereas Pakistan has 617,000. This manpower strength is an advantage should war break out on multiple fronts, such as Punjab, Rajasthan, the LoC etc., India could aim to capture strategic territories or paralyze Pakistan’s military structure. It serves India or indeed any country at war to practice ‘Precision with Restraint.’ Perhaps a more calibrated attack on the terrorist-occupied regions in Pakistan would deal it a severe blow and for this India could deploy its fighter planes or cruise missiles and destroy the ISI and Jaish-e-Mohammad camps inside Pakistan. India needs to strengthen its covert operations and ramp up intelligence driven operations. For instance, questions have been raised in several quarters as to why the terrorists who literally strolled into the Baisaran Valley meadow are still at large. How did they manage to throw the Intelligence Bureau and RAW off their tracks? These are issues that would need to be analysed in great detail as India cannot afford to demoralise its citizens and make them sitting ducks at a tourist resort.
As far as a counter-strike by India is concerned the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is expected to deliver a body blow to Pakistan. Also considering that Pakistan’s economy is at present teetering, the trade ban by India is expected to further choke its economic lifelines. What is of concern though is China’s interest in what is panning out between the two countries and its open support to Pakistan by way of armaments – all for its long term advantage. This is where India needs to be on high alert, more so with Bangladesh also threatening to annex what it calls the “land-locked North eastern states,” because of its recent proximity to China. For India, it’s important to give equal attention to its eastern borders as well – something it has not done after the Chinese invasion of 1962. It is only in recent times that roads and other infrastructure have been built in the Indo-Chinese borders with Arunachal Pradesh. A full scale war is not an option in the age of nuclear missiles, hence India needs to cripple its enemy using the best minds to craft out an effective geo-political strategy both in the western and eastern borders.
