Abruptly and more curiously, focus shifts from the western border to the eastern sector as geo-strategists sound a warning over Bangladesh’s attempt to build an airbase with Chinese assistance not far from the Chicken’s Neck, the narrow 22-km wide land corridor that connects the Indian mainland with North-East India. This is an extremely sensitive region with strategic significance. It was near here, in West Bengal’s north, that the Naxalbari left-wing-extremist-Maoist movement once originated in the 1960s and flourished with Chinese backing. The obvious intent at that time was suspectedly to enable the Chinese to gain foothold or control over this stretch, so as to cut-off India’s mainland from the north-eastern sister states. The violent movement was put down by the Indian security forces. Since then, China has been making repeated, covert attempts to militarily equip its land north of this region. China’s Doklam military offensive in 2017, which India resisted on clue from the US intelligence and request from Bhutan, was also part of China’s hidden designs for the region. Now that Bangladesh has ousted Sheikh Hasina and installed a government with social activist Muhammad Yunus, China probably sees a fresh opportunity to further its plans there. Yunus’ recent statements visualising integration of the economies of China, the north-east and Bangladesh; his assertion that the north-east was “landlocked” and the claim that Bangladesh was the “guardian of the sea” obviously carried with them ill-motives. This prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to advise caution to Yunus in a meeting the two held last month on the sidelines of a BIMSTEC meeting in Bangkok.
The Indian Government can be trusted with keeping a close watch of the developments in the geopolitical region in the aftermath of Hasina’s exit from Bangladesh. To which, however, has been added a new twist with the US seeking to use the evolving situation to its advantage. The relations that the US sought to strengthen with the present Bangladesh administration also did not go unnoticed, evident also in the reported American attempt to arm some insurgent groups in Myanmar via Bangladesh. However, a configuration of objectives of all these players is unlikely given the divergence of interests of the US and China. Yunus’s ability to perform a trapeze act is suspect. It would appear that Russia too would be drawn into the geopolitical games in the eastern sector. Bangladesh’s army chief General Waqar Uz Zaman’s visit to Moscow in April, when he met Russia’s deputy defence minister and army chief, among others, is significant. How the discussions there progressed is not clear, but a defence cooperation between the militaries of Bangladesh and Russia was reportedly explored. The differences between the Bangladesh army and the interim government are not a secret. Some generals are not comfortable with the pro-Pakistan, pro-terrorist stands of the Yunus-guided dispensation but some generals perhaps are. All these would mean there could be curious developments linked to Bangladesh in the coming months.
