DUBAI, June 26: Iran’s 12-day conflict with Israel has been marked by bombings, which have decimated the upper ranks of its Revolutionary Guard and depleted its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israeli missiles and American bunker buster bombs have damaged Iran’s nuclear programme, though how much remains disputed. Khamenei went into deep isolation in an undisclosed location, appearing only twice in videos as the Israelis had free rein over the country’s skies.
Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance,” a group of allied countries and militias in the Mideast, has been mauled by the Israelis since Hamas’ Oct 7, 2023, attack. Foreign support Tehran may have expected from China and Russia never materialized. At home, old problems remain, particularly an economy wrecked by international sanctions, corruption, and mismanagement.
Israel’s campaign exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities, showing how much its intelligence agencies have infiltrated Iran, particularly its swift pinpointing of military and Guard commanders and top nuclear scientists for strikes. The top task for Khamenei may be to root out any suspected disloyalty in the ranks. In that atmosphere, rebuilding Iran’s military, particularly its Revolutionary Guard, will be a challenge. However, the forces have a deep bench of officers.
Khamenei also has to rethink the security policy he wove together over the past two decades. The “Axis of Resistance” alliances allowed Iran to project its power across the Mideast but also was seen as a defensive buffer, intended to keep conflict away from Iranian borders. That buffer has now been shown to be a failure.
After Israel’s campaign exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities, Khamenei might conclude that his country can only protect itself by turning its nuclear capability into an actual bomb, as North Korea did. Iran has always said its nuclear program is peaceful, but it is the only non-nuclear armed state to have enriched uranium to 60%, a short step from weapons-grade.
Many observers believe Khamenei opposed taking that step to a weapon to avoid a war. However, voices within the system demanding a bomb are likely growing, and any drive for a nuclear weapon would be a major gamble.
Many also fear an intensified crackdown on dissent as a leadership battered by war regroups amid mounting problems at home. Iran’s frail economy has been wrecked by international sanctions, corruption, and years of mismanagement. (AP)
