A new political climate is set to develop in Bangladesh with the swearing in of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government there. Party chief Tarique Rahman is expected to step in as Prime Minister on Tuesday. The interim government steered by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus and others would step aside following the parliamentary election verdict that brought back the BNP to centre-stage. In a process that barred the rival Awami League of exiled leader Sheikh Hasina from contesting the elections, the BNP secured around 60 per cent of the vote, while the Jamaat-e-Islami was far behind – securing only 68 seats against the BNP’s 209 in a house of 297. Compared to the latter, which seemed to have links with the Pakistani establishment, the BNP is strongly nationalistic. Such a spirit was evident also in the pronouncements of Rahman after his party’s landslide win, he having declared that national unity should be Bangladesh’s collective strength and that the interests of Bangladesh would determine the next government’s foreign policy.
Tarique Rahman represents one of the two principal ruling families of Bangladesh; the BNP having been founded by his father Ziaur Rahman, a military general who led the nation for a period; and mother Khaleda Zia, a former prime minister, who led the party for over 30 years until her death on December 30, 2025. The BNP ran parallel with the Awami League of Sheikh Hasina, who led the nation as prime minister for 15 years till August 2024 under the inspiring memory of her father and Bangladesh’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The Rahman family’s close association with India, which helped in the liberation struggle from what was then East Pakistan, to make it an independent nation in the early 1970s, continues to this day. That was a guarantee to a long era of regional stability too. Hasina, now safely ensconced in Delhi, had been a guarantee against Pakistani machinations in Bangladesh. Yet, the generals in Rawalpindi worked through layers of fundamentalist influences in Bangladesh to seek and hurt India and strengthen anti-India feelings there. They were also believed to have worked from behind the student-led offensives that unseated Sheikh Hasina from power. The interim government advised by Muhammad Yunus, to some extent, played into the hands of both Pakistani and Chinese interest groups. That now is a chapter left behind in history.
When a new chapter begins in Bangladesh’s politics, India would keenly watch the unfolding scenario. Issues like the Ganga water treaty and the “patronage or protection” that Hasina gets from Delhi could strain relations between the two nations. Yet, Rahman’s stress on national unity, if seen in the right spirit, could mean a phase of reconciliation with his party’s main political rival. This is necessary also as it would be in his own interest to keep the Jamaat-e-Islami’s fundamentalist streaks under check. Hasina is likely to step aside into retirement and her party could take a hit in the absence of a credible face to lead it from the front. From a positive point of view, India would have to reconcile with the new realities in Bangladesh and do a balancing act.
