NEVER have state assembly election results been so hyper-ventilated as they were on Monday May 4. There was excitement in the air especially about the election results of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala assembly seats. Assam was a foregone conclusion as the issues flagged much before the elections by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma—revolving around Jati, Mati, Bheti (meaning identity, land and homeland)—resonated with a population long told that illegal immigration is the bane of Assam and that the state’s resources were being used to service non-deserving illegal migrants, mainly Muslims. The passing of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) left many Bengali Muslims without documents still languishing in jails across Assam. The CAA was a redeemer for many a Bengali Hindu who was a victim of the atrocities inflicted by the then East Pakistan regime and later Bangladesh as they could secure Indian citizenship. The CAA was a masterstroke by the BJP and a balm for Bengali Hindus and Muslims who were targeted during the Assam Movement of 1979-1985 because of the fear of demographic change especially in the Barak Valley. When the BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma targeted the Bengali Muslims, Bengali Hindus supported him and the BJP wholeheartedly. That the Congress supremo of Assam, Gaurav Gogoi himself lost the Jorhat seat reflects the poor state of the Party and its electoral preparedness vis a vis the BJP.
In West Bengal the Special Intensive Review (SIR) of electoral rolls, which excluded 90 lakh voters (of whom 63% were Hindus and 34% Muslims), was a major reason for Mamata Banerjee’s defeat. However, political analysts also attribute the defeat of Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress to her dictatorial style of functioning and the string of rape cases that suggest poor enforcement of law and order in the state. Perhaps the voters of West Bengal voted for real change. In Tamil Nadu we see a classic anti-incumbency factor. The AIADMK lost after 10 years in power. Tamil actor Joseph C Vijay of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is emerging as the new ruling dispensation in the state. What Tamil Nadu has proved, however, is that national parties (BJP, Congress) will remain secondary players.
In Kerala the Left has lost its place of pride even as the Congress-led United Democratic Front has gained ground and will take the reins of governance. The Communist Party/Parties seem to have finally been ousted from their comfort zones. People have seen that when in power even the Communist parties can be as corrupt as any other party which is what the Pinarayi Vijayan Government was seen to be doing. Naturally people rejected the Party. In a progressive state like Kerala, no political party can take the people for granted and that goes for Tamil Nadu too. Besides, elections in India are less about a national wave and more about distinct political cultures shaping the outcomes state by state; certainly, the southern states vote differently from those in the north, west and east. The BJP is yet to make substantive inroads into Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
