By Bishaldeep Kakati and Bipasha Saikia
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s emphatic victories in Assam and its unprecedented breakthrough in West Bengal mark more than routine electoral successes. They signal the consolidation of a new political outlook in eastern and northeastern India, one driven by organisational depth, aspirational politics, calibrated Hindutva, welfare delivery, and a fragmented opposition unable to counter the BJP’s narrative machinery. The results have altered the political map of the region and reaffirmed the emergence of the BJP as the strongest political party across large parts of eastern India. While Assam saw the BJP-led NDA return to power with a two-thirds majority for a third consecutive term, West Bengal witnessed a historic paradigm shift as the BJP formed its first-ever government in the state, ending 15 years of Trinamool Congress (TMC) rule.
In Assam, the BJP secured 82 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, up sharply from 60 in 2021, achieving a solo majority for the first time. Its allies, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF/BOPF), added 10 seats each, taking the NDA tally to 102. The Congress was reduced to 19 seats with a 29-30% vote share, while the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) managed just 2. In West Bengal, the BJP scripted history by winning 207 seats in the 294-member Assembly, a massive leap from 77 seats in 2021, comfortably surpassing the majority mark of 148. The TMC was reduced to around 80 seats, a steep decline from 213 previously. This outcome not only ousted Mamata Banerjee’s government but also fulfilled a long-standing ideological project for the BJP, rooted in the state’s historical ties to Syama Prasad Mookerjee, founder of the Jana Sangh.
A critical analysis of the election results of both the states reveals many key aspects. In Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma emerged as the undisputed face of this victory. His government’s emphasis on delivering welfare pledges proved decisive. Schemes providing subsidised education, financial support for women entrepreneurs, and employment generation through infrastructure projects resonated strongly with voters. Assam’s per capita income grew significantly from Rs. 49,000 to Rs. 60,000 in the 2013-16 period, to over Rs. 1,54,000–Rs 1,85,429 by 2024-25/2025-26 since the BJP first assumed power in 2016, outpacing several other states and narrowing the development gap despite the state’s geographic challenges. Major investments, including a Rs 27,000 crore Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) facility in Morigaon, improved highways, and enhanced connectivity, reinforced the narrative of economic aspiration over identity politics alone. The Hindutva narrative, intertwined with Assamese identity concerns over illegal immigration from Bangladesh, helped consolidate Hindu votes across regions, whether in high-Muslim or low-Muslim sub-divisions. Post-2023 delimitation and the Special Revision of electoral rolls, which updated voter lists and addressed anomalies, further strengthened the party’s position by ensuring cleaner electoral rolls, a factor repeatedly highlighted in post-poll analyses.
Equally critical was the BJP’s organisational strength, modelled on its successful booth-level politics in Bihar. Thousands of dedicated workers managed micro-level campaigns, voter outreach, and last-mile delivery of schemes at the booth level. This grassroots machinery, backed by the central leadership, translated into efficient vote consolidation. The opposition’s fragmentation amplified these advantages. The Congress struggled with selecting the right candidate for most of the constituencies, winning mostly in Muslim-dominated pockets and alienating broader Hindu and indigenous voters. Further regional forces like the Raijor Dal and AJP also didn’t have any or much of an effect.
If Assam represented consolidation, West Bengal represented expansion. The BJP’s performance in Bengal marked a historic ideological and electoral shift. Though the Trinamool Congress retained substantial influence, the BJP’s rise from a marginal force to a dominant challenger fundamentally altered Bengal’s political equilibrium. The party’s gains in parliamentary and Assembly contests demonstrated that Bengal’s political culture, long shaped by Left politics and regional populism was no longer impermeable to the BJP’s national narrative.
In Bengal, five key factors paved the path for BJP. The first amongst the five factors is the deep anti-incumbency against the TMC after 15 years in power. Issues of governance, coupled with allegations of mismanagement, eroded public trust. Second was the economics of aspiration that played a pivotal role. West Bengal’s per capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) had lagged behind peers; by 2024-25, it stood at Rs 82,781, lower than Odisha’s Rs 106,918 for constant prices, while for current prices for 2024-25, West Bengal stood at Rs. 1,63,467, and Odisha at Rs. 1,82,548 despite starting higher in 2011-12. Voters, tired of industrial stagnation post-Left rule and perceived policy paralysis under TMC, turned towards the BJP’s promises of industrialisation, jobs, and infrastructure.
Third, the BJP’s organisational prowess proved formidable. Deploying Bihar-style booth politics, the party built an extensive cadre network for door-to-door campaigns and precise voter targeting. The central leadership factor provided the national momentum, while local leaders like Suvendu Adhikari symbolised the shift. Fourth, social engineering and new vote banks were skillfully administered. Issues around reservation and social justice altered traditional equations, enabling the BJP to expand beyond its core base through strategic outreach. The famous incident of Narendra Modi consuming Jhalmuri, that has been referred as “Jhalmuri politics” , engaged deeply with Bengal’s local culture, street-level issues, and everyday aspirations in both urban and rural pockets, and that helped forge emotional connections. Finally, the Hindutva narrative delivered a huge ideological success. The campaign blended cultural nationalism with development pledges, achieving what many described as a paradigm shift in the BJP’s eastern journey. Religious polarisation, carefully calibrated, resonated amid broader national trends, while the fragmented opposition with the Left and Congress offering negligible resistance left the TMC isolated.
These victories carry significance far beyond the two states. Together, they underscore voters’ preference for governance models blending aspiration-driven economics, strong organisation, and cultural identity narratives. The BJP’s electoral machine today functions not just during campaigns but continuously through booth networks, digital outreach, welfare monitoring, and identity-based mobilisation. It represents the emergence of a new political order in eastern India where ideology, aspiration, welfare, and organisation converge into a highly effective electoral formula.
