New Delhi, Dec 4 : The political landscape in Bangladesh is undergoing a significant transformation ahead of the general elections scheduled for February 2026, with Jamaat-e-Islami gaining ground against the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), challenging earlier assumptions of an easy victory for the BNP.
Historically, the BNP was expected to dominate due to the absence of the Awami League, which has been banned from contesting. A year ago, polls suggested a clear BNP win, but recent surveys indicate the gap is narrowing. According to the International Republican Institute (IRI), 39% of voters lean toward the BNP, while Jamaat-e-Islami commands 29%, and the National Citizens Party (NCP) garners 6%. Observers predict the Jamaat’s support could grow closer to the elections.
A key driver of the Jamaat’s resurgence is its strong student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), which has achieved notable victories in student elections at Dhaka University and other major universities, including Jahangirnagar, Rajshahi, and Chittagong. These victories have energized the party and expanded its influence among young voters.
Compared to the BNP, Jamaat has a more robust organizational structure, which has helped it mobilize support effectively. Analysts also point to a shift toward radical Islamic politics in Bangladesh, amplified by Pakistan’s influence following the fall of the Hasina government. This support has helped Jamaat spread its ideology and consolidate power in key regions.
While the BNP assumes it will retain power, its popularity has dipped due to complaints about extortion and land grabs by party leaders. Conversely, the NCP remains politically immature, seeking to control institutions and implement reforms prematurely. Its leaders’ reliance on caretaker Chief Muhammad Yunus, who supports them for their role in protests that ousted Hasina, has raised concerns about their legitimacy and long-term appeal.
The Jamaat has actively presented itself as a reformist party, promoting institutional reforms and elections while projecting an image of integrity, contrasting itself with the perceived corruption of the BNP and Awami League. However, analysts caution that this may be a temporary facade and the party could revert to its previous practices after assuming power.
A Jamaat victory could have significant implications for India, which has banned the party due to its historical proximity to Pakistan. Between 2001 and 2006, when the BNP and Jamaat governed together, India faced serious security challenges, including anti-India activities and the seizure of arms shipments intended for operations against India.
Experts highlight that voter sentiment is gradually shifting from the BNP toward Jamaat, with Awami League supporters likely to abstain rather than vote for either of the leading parties.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether Jamaat can convert its growing support into a decisive electoral advantage. The current trend indicates a more competitive and unpredictable election landscape, where the traditional dominance of the BNP is no longer assured, and Jamaat’s rise signals a radical change in Bangladesh’s political dynamics, potentially affecting regional stability and India-Bangladesh relations. (IANS)
