Intel warns of orchestrated anti-India violence in B’desh as polls near

NEW DELHI, Jan 23: As Bangladesh prepares for national elections in February, Indian intelligence agencies warn that anti-India rhetoric and violence are likely to escalate.
Intercepts suggest unrest will be organised rather than spontaneous, driven by Jamaat-e-Islami with backing from Pakistan’s ISI.
Jamaat aims to consolidate votes through anti-India narratives, while the ISI seeks a government more amenable to its influence.
New Delhi is monitoring the situation closely and has withdrawn families of Indian officials from Bangladesh over security concerns.
Intelligence officials describe the country as unstable, with potential violence intensifying if Jamaat feels threatened in the polls.
In such a scenario, unrest could be used to disrupt the election process.
Recent protests have targeted Indian missions, with messaging blaming India for the killing of student leader Osman Hadi and accusing New Delhi of interfering in the election by sheltering former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Security threats extend beyond political unrest. Intelligence agencies report the presence of top commanders from militant groups, including the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), in Bangladesh.
These groups could attempt cross-border infiltration into India’s northeastern states and West Bengal to carry out terror attacks, placing additional strain on Indian security forces.
Officials also highlight a broader geopolitical dimension, with Pakistan and China opposing Indian influence in Bangladesh.
Both reportedly favor a Jamaat-led government, while China is said to support Muhammad Yunus becoming president after the elections.
Yunus has already made concessions during his tenure as caretaker head of the interim government, and a deal linking his presidency to a Jamaat victory may be in place.
This convergence of political, security, and international pressures makes the coming months particularly challenging for India. (IANS)