Kyiv, Jan 28: A new report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warned that combined casualties in Russia’s war on Ukraine could reach 2 million by spring 2026.
Russia has suffered unprecedented losses, with 1.2 million troops killed, injured, or missing between February 2022 and December 2025, including up to 325,000 deaths—the highest recorded for any major power in a single conflict since World War II. Ukraine, with its smaller population and armed forces, is estimated to have suffered 500,000–600,000 casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths.
The CSIS figures were compiled using independent data from Mediazona, the BBC, British government estimates, and interviews with state officials. Both Moscow and Kyiv restrict public information on military losses, with Russia officially acknowledging just over 6,000 soldier deaths.
A war of attrition
The report notes that Russian forces are advancing slowly despite their numerical advantage, with gains averaging only 15–70 metres per day in major offensives.
Analysts describe the conflict as a grinding war of attrition along a roughly 1,000-kilometre front, with President Vladimir Putin showing no urgency for a settlement.
Mediazona, in collaboration with volunteers, has identified over 160,000 Russian troop fatalities through news reports, social media, and government sources. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died.
Ongoing attacks and civilian impact
Separately, two civilians were killed in an overnight Russian strike in Bilohorodka, near Kyiv, while at least nine others were injured in Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia.
Ukraine reported one ballistic missile and 146 strike drones used overnight, 103 of which were intercepted. Russia claimed its air defences destroyed 75 Ukrainian drones, including strikes over Crimea and the Voronezh region, where debris from downed drones sparked a fire at an oil depot.
The report emphasizes the human and strategic toll of the war, noting that Russia’s minimal territorial gains come at extraordinary costs, signaling a decline in Moscow’s power on the global stage.
With current trends, combined casualties could reach 1.8 million soon, potentially hitting 2 million by spring. (AP)
