CAIRO, April 21: After the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes, Iran’s leadership has not collapsed but is entering a fragile and uncertain phase, with upcoming negotiations posing a major challenge.
His successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained largely out of public view amid reports he was wounded, leaving questions about how effectively he is exercising authority.
In the absence of a dominant central figure, power has shifted toward a collective leadership structure led by the Supreme National Security Council. This body, made up of senior civilian officials, military leaders, and political rivals, has become the main decision-making center.
Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has emerged as its public face and chief negotiator with the United States, positioning himself as a key figure capable of managing internal divisions.
Iran’s leadership has so far maintained unity by adopting a tough stance against US demands. However, deep ideological differences remain.
Hard-liners such as Saeed Jalili oppose engagement with Washington, while reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian and others may favor a more pragmatic approach.
These differences are likely to surface during negotiations, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, regional influence, and security guarantees.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz is a major source of leverage, as Iran can disrupt a key global oil route.
However, the ongoing conflict and US-imposed economic pressure are severely straining Iran’s economy, increasing the urgency of reaching a deal to ease sanctions and prevent domestic unrest.
Recent events have already exposed internal tensions. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced reopening the strait under a ceasefire, only for Iran’s military to reverse the decision after the US maintained its blockade, highlighting coordination challenges within the leadership.
Qalibaf’s broad ties across political and military factions make him a potential bridge-builder. While Iran’s decentralized system has helped it survive external shocks, the real test now is whether its leaders can remain united and make difficult compromises needed to end the war. (AP)
