TWO months past the Iran War, there’s no end in sight. Iran is no easy walkover, as President Donald Trump has learned to his dismay. Instead of the US, it is Iran that keeps putting conditions for an end to the war. The US, having caused huge destruction to vital Iranian installations before the fortnight’s ceasefire, has no way but to continue with the pause and negotiate matters for more time. The Trump administration sees no clear way out of the impasse. It imposed a blockade on Iran and its ports to prevent the Islamic nation’s sale of its oil, which could hurt its economic interests seriously. With less storage facilities, Iran will have to stop production too. At the same time, the blockade and Iran’s closure of a sea route through which one-fifth of the world’s oil movement takes place have resulted in a skyrocketing of the global oil prices and hurt the Gulf states in different ways — this being the sea route through which they export their oil and gas. The tiny Gulf states, being the traditional allies of the US with which they have military and security ties, are caught in a quagmire. Oil is their bread and butter; its export stands hugely disrupted now. Trump is caught between the pressures from within the US against the long-drawn military engagement and from these allies. All are feeling the pinch of war.
The three conditions put forward by the Iranians at the negotiating table guided by Oman and Pakistan are prima facie unacceptable to the US. Iran is willing to accept the demand for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz only if the US lifts its blockade on their country and its ports, ends the war, and agrees to postpone the nuclear talks. The US started the war with a claim to go and abort Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran, Trump feels, is closer to making the bomb. Nuclear talks cannot be wished away. But Iran keeps resisting the US pressure as the Americans are hesitant about taking the war to the next decisive level – of a land war involving soldiers. American lives, it is reckoned, are “more precious” than the lives of the Iranians. On the ground, the Iranian army, strong-willed that it still is, is well-equipped for a fight on its native turf. It is important for Americans to also save the face of their president. As of now, Trump appears reticent about resuming the war. An escape route has to be laid open through talks. In the interim, the world is put to more trouble. Oil prices have increased sharply and so are the prices of most items across the board. Traders are the main beneficiaries of any war. They pass on the burden to the consumers; and, greedy as they are, they engage in the games of hoarding and profiteering. In countries like India, it is increasingly evident yet again that no governmental mechanism is serious enough to control such situations. Almost every sector is bearing the brunt of the war. The US cannot escape the cumulative impact of the present global disruptions in multiple sectors as a result of this military engagement.
