Optimism is high as the Monsoon Session of Parliament begins on Monday, with a declaration from the government that it would push through two major legislations—Women’s Reservation and Constituency Delimitation—that would require a two-thirds majority support. Its attempt to pass these failed in April. But, with a reconfiguration of political forces, mainly involving regional parties, the BJP feels confident the bills will get the required support this time. The BJP worked overtime in recent months to effect a turnaround while situations also conspired to give the NDA an added advantage. The BJP-inspired split in the AAP, which saw the defection of a significant number of the regional party’s MPs to the former’s side was one such instance. The downfall of the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, where the BJP captured power, also saw several of Mamata Banerjee’s MPs shifting their allegiance to the BJP. That process is ongoing. The split in the Shiv Sena (UBT), also with encouragement from the BJP, won the NDA the support of a few more MPs. The sudden political changes in Tamil Nadu, where the Congress sided with the TVK government of actor Joseph Vijay, irritated the DMK so much that it exited the INDIA bloc and gave hints of a neutral stand in national politics.
All these were music to the BJP’s ears. Now, it is confident of mustering a two-thirds majority in Parliament to push through the two significant legislations and more. The women’s reservation bill has been waiting to be passed long enough to ensure 33 percent reservation for women in Parliament and state assemblies starting from the 2029 general election. Clubbing the bill with the delimitation legislation was a strategic move by the Modi government though the two issues are interlinked. Now that optimism is high about its passage, the BJP is likely to seek and get more support from women across the country for having gotten this through. The delimitation legislation, which would grant more MP seats to the Hindi-belt states where the population has risen significantly in recent years will also benefit the BJP, the main political establishment there.
The BJP also has reason to cheer because the NDA will no longer depend on one or two parties for the Modi government’s sustenance. The splits in regional parties and the change in the DMK’s mood will give more flexibility to the present parliamentary scenario. Since the NDA failed to get a majority in the 2024 polls, the government was dependent on the JDU and Telugu Desam for its existence. Their bargaining power will reduce now with more support coming to the ruling alliance from the split regional groups and their MPs. Constituency delimitation was also long awaited after the new Parliament House arranged more seats to accommodate double the current number of MPs, but how this will play out on regional equations in national politics and Parliament will be closely watched. The legislation should ensure that the regional balance in Parliament is maintained at all costs. The BJP should avoid the temptation to play politics to its own advantage.
