By HH Mohrmen

The internal strife and acrimony in the Congress party especially during the election period does not augur well for the party. The infighting has no doubt boosted the morale of the supporters of the United Democratic Party (UDP) and given the UDP hope to win the ensuing election hands down, or, at least do better than the Congress. The working President of the UDP was recently quoted by the media saying that the party will do much better than the Congress in the coming election and that he hopes the party will be able to form the next government in the state. Judging from media reports which are appearing almost on a daily basis, it of course gives the readers the impression that the working President of the UDP is right and the Congress is going to meet its nemesis on February 28. But what appears in the media can also fool one’s perception and on a closer look turn out to be just like the mirage in the desert. The infighting in the Congress party has already damaged the Congress party’s credibility as a disciplined party where the leaders and supporters always rally behind their leaders, toe the party line and obey the high command’s order.

The pertinent question is; which party is going to meet its doomsday after the 2013 election results are declared, the UDP or the Congress? Unlike the Congress, the UDP till date has not been able to come up with the complete list of candidates for all the 60 assembly constituencies; But the question is why? Why despite the advantage of the infighting in the Congress party, the UDP could not even collect enough candidates to contest in all the 60 assembly constituencies in the state? If the party cannot put together even 60 candidates contesting on the party ticket, can we say that the UDP would benefit from the infighting in the Congress party? The UDP has not been able to capitalize from the state of affairs that the Congress is in; the reason is not with the UDP but the party’s relationship with the people and this is something that the party cannot just wish away. The reason the UDP is not able to rally enough candidates to contest on the party’s ticket in the coming election is because the people have not forgiven or forgotten the UDP for hobnobbing with the Congress in the last few years. By associating with the Congress to form the last MUA government in the state; the UDP has put the regional credentials of the party in jeopardy. Even though the party leadership has time and again justified the party’s stand in aligning with the Congress to form the government than with the other parties in the state, the fact of the matter is that the UDP’s claim to be the only credible regional force in the state is gradually diminishing, since the day the party aligned with the Congress. By joining hands with the Congress to form a government in the state, the UDP has undermined its own claim as the only party which champions the regional interests of the tribal population of the state. No matter how badly the Congress plays in this election and how hard the UDP tries to benefit from the Congress infighting, people will still see the UDP as the party which is ready to align with the Congress immediately after the elections. No sooner are the election results declared, than the UDP would make a beeline for the Congress Bhavan and try to strike a deal with the Congress to form the next government.

At the party leadership level, the UDP’s play with its regional identity has made the party lose two of its most important members — JF Kharshiing and Ardent Basaiawmoit. JFK was the party’s candidate in the last MP election to the Shillong parliamentary constituency who recently joined the Congress. He is one of the very few mass leaders the party had. Ardent M Basaiawmoit left the party and has joined the Hills State Peoples’ Democratic Party (HSPDP). Obviously; UDP is a party in dilemma; the party leadership failed to realize that regionalism is not simply an identity that the party can wear as a badge of honour, but it is the feeling, the hope, the aspiration that people have carried in their heads and in their hearts for so long. Regionalism is the idea that the tribals in the country are unique and they need special protection. This has been indoctrinated in the minds of the people since the Hill State movement and it is still alive and kicking. It is not a slogan that the UDP can just play around with at its convenience. Therefore the party (particularly those in the leadership) have committed a Himalayan blunder by playing with the regional sentiments of the people and it has no one else to blame for this but itself. The party will have to pay a huge price for this blunder.

The reason many aspiring candidates in the ensuing election have chosen to contest as independent candidates rather than on party tickets other than the Congress is because there is no regional party that is really committed to regional principles and tribal ideology. The sign of times, it seems, is not in favour of regional politics in the state. If the UDP which is the major regional party in the state cannot even muster enough candidates to contest on the party ticket in the coming election, then the future of the party and the regional politics in the state is very bleak indeed. Is regionalism then is a dying ideology? Or has the regional party in the state failed the people? Has regionalism become an outdated ideology, or is it just the regional parties that have failed the people? These are important questions and the answers will only emerge after February 28. If the UDP or any regional party is not going to give the Congress a run for its money, then who is the Congress fighting against in the coming election?

The main contender of the Congress in the 2013 election is not the UDP, or any other party but itself. Many of the defected Congress candidates who were denied tickets have jumped into the fray. They have chosen to contest as independent candidates rather than on a UDP ticket or any other party ticket for that matter. Party affiliation in the Congress is like religious conversion; once a Congressman/woman always a Congressman/woman. Even candidates who were not contenders for Congress party ticket chose to enter the fray as independent candidates because they have already anticipated the outcome of the elections. They know that being independent will give them much leeway to negotiate their way after the election. The freedom of being an independent MLA will give them an upper hand over those in smaller parties.

It will not be a surprise if many independent candidates come up successful in the ensuing election because regional parties are not only destroying themselves by contesting against each other, but most importantly the impression that the people have of almost all regional parties is very damaging indeed. People are of the opinion that the parties talk about regional principles only during election but abandon them immediately after the election results are declared.

The UDP’s hope of benefiting from the internal strife in the Congress party is but a false hope. The UDP will only win from constituencies that the party is strong from because it has a strong candidates. The squabbling in the Congress party will not in any way benefit the party. If anyone is to benefit from this infighting it will be the independent candidates and these are candidates belonging to the team B of the Congress party.

Indo-Pak Peace Talks
By Harihar Swarup

Why Pakistan army whipped up tension on LoC in Kashmir and indulged in such a gruesome act as beheading an Indian soldier? The reason could be the current state of affairs in India’s neighbourhood. A lot is happening in Pakistan, the main being that the moderates in army have revised their India-specific security threat to declare domestically bred terrorism a bigger danger than India. Also, the country is in election mode; general elections are due in the first half of 2013.

The Indo-Pak peace process was making steady progress when the dastardly act took place on the LoC. Precisely at that time 8th South Asian Media Conference was being held in the historic city of Lahore, which this correspondent attended as a delegate representing India. Delegates from all South Asian countries attended the conclave. It was addressed by Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif. The three leaders and all those who addressed the conference swore by peace in the two countries, lauding the theme of the conference—opening minds, opening borders. They had no idea that on the LoC the peace process was being reversed. Obviously, the militants and hardliners in the army did not like the peace process to succeed and they struck.

Within days the election process came under threat from Pakistan’s own version of Anna Hazare—a bearded preacher named Tahirul Qadri. The difference between the two is that while Hazare is a Gandhinan, Qadri is a fundamentalist and said to be a stooge of the army. A religious preacher of Canadian nationality, Qadri has dislodged Imran Khan’s Tehrik-e-Pakistan as a major challenger to the established political order. His seize of Islamabad has drawn out people in thousands to protest against rampant corruption, unemployment and lack of basic service. His movement got a boost with the Supreme Court ordering of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf’s arrest.

Established parties like PPP and PML-Nawaz rubbished Qadri as a pawn in the hands of forces bent upon derailing elections or manipulating results. Qadri is a Canadian passport holder and his frontline supporter, the MQM leader, Altaf Hussain a British national.

Could it be that the LoC was violated in a blatant manner to internationalize the Kashmir issue, derail elections and weaken the anti-terror offensive on Pakistan’s western borders with Afghanistan? This shift in the army’s approach is attributed to internal security threat from Tehrik-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP), and other violent groups with ethnic, sectarian and sub-nationalist motivations.

The TTP abhors democracy and advocates Islamic Sharia. It has threatened to send fighters to J&K to counter army’s internal threat theory. The ideological argument is an extension of the struggle for Sharia is Kashmir where the Pakistan-sponsored Jihad had not yielded results. Tactically, they want to stall troop movement to the west in pursuance of the internal security threat the army has front loaded in its revised doctrine. Renewed border tensions with India will pin the troops down in the east, complicating Pakistan’s internal security beyond redemption.

There is plenty of evidence that jihadis in Pakistan have been growing more powerful—and that organizations like Tehreek-e-Taliban are seriously considering expanding their operations eastward. Tehreek’s deputy chief, Maulana Wali-ur-Rahman, has reportedly said “ the practical struggle for Sharia system that we are carrying out in Pakistan, we will undertake in Kashmir and the same way we will implement it in India”. It is self-evident that preventing a rapprochement between Jihadis and the generals is in India’s best interest.

What Pakistan army has to endure is many thousands more of their soldiers being massacred by their own homegrown terrorists than in all Indo-Pak wars and near-wars put together. Sixty-five years of independence have shown Pakistanis that military dictatorship cannot be justified on any “doctrine of necessity”, any appeal to theology or any crying of wolf over an external enemy. The Pakistan establishment knows that its armed forces are capable of conquering only one country—their own. Moreover, the Pakistan establishment and, particularly its armed forces, and intelligence agencies, have become the biggest victim of the very same forces of terror they thought they could unleash on others.

The need of the hour is “uninterrupted and uninterruptible” dialogue as the only way for India and Pakistan to resolve their issues and normalize their relations. We need most to talk when we are on edge of war. The opposition to dialogue has little to do with individual incidents, howsoever horrific. There is huge mindset change occurring in Pakistan, indeed, has been evolving with increasing acceleration over the last three decades. Tragically, this changing Pakistani mindset is escaping far too large a section if public opinion in India. (IPA Service)