By Dawa Tshering

The Chinese territorial claim on Arunachal Pradesh has increasingly become an issue of grave concern for Indian foreign policy given China’s visible assertiveness on the issue in recent years. China’s growing influence in world politics, its closed political system, its economic robustness and its military modernization are creating apprehensions about the intentions and capabilities of China. On China’s part, its 2010 White Paper on National Defense reflects international tensions when it states that “International strategic competition centering on International order, comprehensive national strength and geopolitics has intensified.

Contradictions continue to surface between developed and developing countries and between traditional and emerging powers, while local conflicts and regional flashpoints are a recurrent theme. Major Powers are stepping up the realignment of their security and military strategies, accelerating military reform, and vigorously developing new and more sophisticated military technologies.

Most significantly, the White Paper notes that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone massive modernization with a focus on joint operations and information warfare. The White Paper also states that border security is one of the most important tasks of the PLA and the Peoples’ Liberation Army Air-force (PLAAF) under the supervision of the State Council and Central Military Commission. The stress here is on joint operational and logistical training between the military, police and civilian actors in the border areas. It is important to note that border security, territorial integrity and social stability are the most recurring themes in the official announcements of the Chinese regime. Internal stability, territorial integrity, harmony and unity (including re-integration of historically claimed Chinese territories) is intricately woven throughout the Chinese National Papers on Defence.

Indian concerns about China’s military modernisation in Tibet which borders Arunachal Pradesh are also growing. China has upgraded its military presence in Tibet very close to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Arunachal Pradesh by replacing its old liquid fuelled, nuclear capable CSS-3 intermediate range ballistic missile with “more advanced CSS-5 MRBMs”.

Intercontinental missiles such as the DF-31 and DF-31A with a range of 5,500 km to 8000 km have also been deployed by China at Delingha, north of Tibet. On the border with India, China has deployed 13 Border Defence Regiments amounting to around 300,000 PLA troops. Airfields have also been established at Hoping, Pangta and Kong Ka respectively. These are in addition to the existing six airfields in the Tibetan Autonomous Region for supporting fighter aircraft operations and to enhance the PLA’s airlift capability. Of critical value to China’s force structure in this regard is the PLA’s 23 Rapid Reaction Forces (RRFs).

The RRFs have been considerably modernised to a hi-tech force equipped for a limited war in the Himalayas. The RRFs are on a 24 hour operational mode, and are trained to function in any environment. These units are composed of two group armies, nine divisions, three brigades, and seven regimental or battalion level units with an approximate strength of 400,000 personnel (This is inclusive of the Resolving Emergency Mobile Combat Forces (REMCF). All three divisions of the Chinese military namely, the Army, Navy and the Air Force, have their own RRF units. At present, there are six RRF divisions stationed at Chengdu very close to Tibet. Formed in the 1990s after the first Gulf War, the RRF’s main mission is to win or prevent highly intensive regional conflicts and enhance China’s military capabilities in a high tech environment using the latest in military technology.

Significantly, the RRFs possess the airlift capability to reach the India-China border in 48 hours. The six RRF divisions stationed at Chengdu are always in an operational readiness mode; capable of operating in all kinds of terrain. Of critical importance to India is the fact that the RRFs train in Southwest China (Yunnan), a terrain very similar to Arunachal Pradesh. The RRFs will form the first line of offence used by China to occupy key areas in Arunachal Pradesh and resist the forward movement of the Indian army if any future conflict occurs.

India has responded to this Chinese military build-up by taking a strategic decision in October 2011 to deploy the Brahmos supersonic cruise missile, which has a flight range of 290 km, in the eastern sector to strengthen its defence posture vis-à-vis China. A five year expansion plan to induct 90,000 more troops and deploy four more divisions in the eastern sector is also underway. Already, there are 120,000 Indian troops stationed in the eastern sector, supported by two Sukhoi 30 MKI squadrons from Tezpur in Assam. In April 2012, India successfully tested the 5000 km range Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), Agni V, from Wheeler Island, off the Odisha coast. The Agni V can reach Chinese cities like Beijing and Shanghai. This kind of nuclear escalation “signalling” between two of the rising powers of Asia is not without its downsides.

First, China already possesses ICBM capabilities ranging from 5,500 km to 8,000 km. It’s Dongfeng 31 or the D- 31 is a solid fuel ICBM with a range of 8000 km. China also successfully test-fired its 14,000 km range Dongfeng-41 (D-41) ICBM in July 2012. It also possesses the JL-2 nuclear tipped ICBM with a range of 7000 km and can be launched from submarines. Secondly, this situation of a potential nuclear arms race could result in a “security dilemma”. Security dilemma by definition implies that when the first state arms itself, the second state fearing the first state’s armament, in turn arms itself. The first state then responds to the second state’s armament by further arming itself resulting in a vicious cycle of armament.

China’s territorial claim on Arunachal Pradesh also has great symbolic resonance for its legitimacy over Tibet. The 400- years old monastery in Tawang was the birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama in the 17th century and is the second largest Tibetan monastery after Lhasa. It is plausible that the 14th Dalai Lama chooses his successor from the Tawang monastery. China also perceives that India makes it possible for the Dalai Lama to travel abroad, and his speeches around the world have kept the Tibetan issue alive and questioned Chinese legitimacy over Tibet. Besides this, Chinese suspicions were aroused when, following the rebellion in Tibet in 1959, the Chinese were

criticised by certain Indian leaders, and the mass media. China feared then and still fears now that India might itself become a base for the subversive activities of the Dalai Lama’s supporters. Consequently, China pursues an aggressive posture on Arunachal Pradesh to deter India’s so- called Tibet card. Most local academics and policy makers in Arunachal Pradesh argue that Chinese aggressiveness is increasing vis-à-vis Arunachal Pradesh due to its growing insecurity over Tibet. Indeed, the existing strong Tibetan culture especially in Tawang and the Upper Siang districts in Arunachal Pradesh provoke Chinese fears of a covert pan-Tibetan movement for independence from across the India-China border. INAV

By Indranil Banerjea

India’s metropolitan political, economic and social elites have assumed a sense of personal grandeur as economic success began to haunt India in the aftermath of the 40-year mayhem of command economics and bureaucratic paralysis. Many of them have grown very rich and rejoice in their ability to enjoy their wealth. This was difficult in earlier times under the gaze of a state bureaucracy unable to countenance private surfeit without sharing it corruptly. Now, sleek German limousines are a common sight in the roads of Mumbai and Delhi and it is disconcerting to observe young men casually settle Rs. 50,000 bar bills in 5 star hotels in a single evening. Yet, these examples of dysfunctional enjoyment of wealth do not even approach the limits of excess and a visit to marriages in Delhi farmhouses will disabuse any gullibility on this issue. And much of the wealth is acquired through fraud and the product of the economics of political arbitrage or political office itself.

The economic strangulation of the licence Raj is alleged to have ended, but, in essence, what was lifted was sectoral restrictions on economic activity (though some of the worst remain) and permissible volumes in production. But it did not seriously curtail the range of official approvals required to engage in them and the whole panoply of detailed terms and conditions that unfailingly accompany them. These remain firmly in the control of politicians and bureaucrats and they cannot believe their good fortune, since it enables collection of even larger rents. As a result, the ratio of reward to effort for political activity has risen dramatically, with the private business fortunes of the few offering undreamt of opportunities for illicit enrichment for the political and bureaucratic elite. With the exception of a few critical individuals, they have grasped the unparalleled opportunity with both hands and feet. The recent revelations of corrupt enrichment of politicians, reaching right up to the highest levels, bear testimony to its stupefying scale. The fact that political careers in India exceed virtually all other endeavours in their huge profitability is graphically highlighted by the emergence of political dynasties as the norm. There are exceptions in some parts of the country, but they must be regarded as anomalies. Even the most exalted servant of the state, invested in its premier constitutional office, could not bear to abandon his parliamentary constituency to anyone except a son. The end of a family’s political enterprise likely promises rapid socio-economic oblivion for the family gene pool, no matter that this particular progeny is evidently mentally challenged, given to repugnant comment, with violence to the grammar of his own mother tongue. India’s political arrangements and scope for private economic opportunity have conspired to establish a framework that relegates governance to obscurity and prioritises private greed and ambition in its political and bureaucratic classes.

The folly of parliamentary politics and the attendant downright inappropriate form of constitutional governance stands exposed in all its virulent consequences. Parliamentary representation identifies, articulates and amplifies every active and dormant fault-line and division in Indian society. And it privileges the political entrepreneur most competent to exploit them to ensure that they worsen and endure. The divide-and-rule of imperialism has become the monstrosity of divided rule by the incumbent natives, who have seized its every demonic facet to preside over the precipitous downward spiral of their inheritance. Pre-existing caste, religious, linguistic and regional divisions, efficiently deployed by imperial Britain to keep the natives in their place, have flourished since her departure because the Indian Constitution facilitates and promotes them.

In the extant form of political representation, the individual voter chooses the politician and political party that most convincingly offer to articulate and politicize his parochial desires and sectarian grievances. In a presidential constitutional order, the compulsion of voting for a singular national figure would require them to consider who would best reconcile their competing demands with the rest of society. No one group could hope to elect a President able to exclusively espouse their particularistic aspirations. The structural imperative of the latter system of governance, for all its likely defects and shortcomings, would be unity through negotiation of division, while the parliamentary contest does precisely the opposite by intensifying it. Exactly the same holds true of individual states, in which an elected governor, who, ruling with an assembly, enjoying carefully enumerated powers, would be obliged to reconcile competing demands of electors rather than look to the lowest common denominator of votebank politics. The questions over policing and law enforcement, following the brutal rape and death of a young woman, are a comment on deeper troubles in the Republic. It is indeed a metaphor that tragically captures much that is wrong with Indian society and the threat of worse to come. The surge of commentary on the incompetence and callousness of law enforcement is apt but the diagnosis flawed. The performance of the guardians of the law, if they may be ironically deemed as such, cannot be ipso facto judged on how they have functioned in this particular grim episode. It is essentially erroneous to impute to them primary responsibility for protecting the public. Their primary task is to ensure the safety of India’s political and bureaucratic elites and, to a lesser degree, the very wealthy, if the latter do not employ private security firms to do so already. An RTI application would reveal how many security personnel are engaged in looking after VVIPs, though it is known that the Z-plus level entails an unprecedented 30 personnel for each fortunate individual. The performance of official security agencies, assessed in terms of their actual operational mission, must be deemed tremendously successful. Very few VVIPs have succumbed to violence and many security personnel have given their lives in extraordinary displays of bravery in performing their duty.

The pre-existing fissures and divisions of Indian society, combined with the dire threat of terrorism sponsored by the government of Pakistan, have exposed the deepest dilemmas of Indian society. It is nakedly a social order in which the prosperity and personal safety of politicians and their bureaucratic underlings are ensured because votebanks acquiesce. Cultivating these becomes the dominant fixation rather than virtuous governance and the pursuit of the public good. An ignored public occasionally takes to the street, with modest expressions of violent militancy, quite mellow by international standards. And the state is perfectly willing to unleash the police against them for their audacity in breaching barricades outside the palatial homes of arrogant rulers. INAV

Apparently, those who do not matter should know their place. In a final example of cynicism, the dying victim of rape was dispatched abroad by disdainful rulers, just in case her funeral procession became a cause of additional irritants to their serenity. But the gods must be watching, since she has beckoned her fellow citizens to action with a remarkable display of moral integrity and courage, values worth living and dying for. INAV