For long, the dollar has been recognised as strong and unassailable and the currency of choice as a solid means of securing cash reserve. It is an argument acceptable to central banks as well as drug smugglers. The US may have overplayed the strength of the dollar, spending beyond its means, adding to currency expenditure owing to the world’s endless demand for dollar-dominated debt. Now the armour has shown its chinks as the US treasury debt has been downgraded from AAA to AA+. Of course, even AA+ is better than the currency rating in most other countries. The other AAA countries are France, Germany and the UK. But they are saddled with financial obligations to south European countries like Greece and Spain. Debt-laden Japan is now just AA, China’s financial system is closed and hardly attractive to investors. China has been particularly vocal in demanding an end to the dominance of the dollar. Russia also takes the same line at every UN meet. But assessing the currencies in other major countries, it was difficult to question the dollar’s supremacy for the short or the medium term.
There are other views. The IMF wants central banks to use its special drawing rights or SDRs which means a claim on the currencies of all IMF members. According to it, an SDR based economic world will be more stable. Again, a move can be made to basket international currencies for the medium term. The Union Bank of Switzerland surveyed eighty central bank reserve managers half of whom said that they expected a portfolio of currencies to become the standard unit of reserves in the next twenty five years. No immediate change is expected but the dollar is certainly under attack.
