By Dr Satish Misra
Pakistan goes to the polls on May 11 when people will elect their 342 representatives to run their country for the next five years which is going through its one of the toughest time since it came into existence in 1947.
Economy is down. Violence is on rise with crimes in cities taking alarming proportions. Insurgency situation is continuing in Balochistan and tribal areas neighbouring Afghanistan. Radical militant groups, drawing legitimacy from religious fundamentalism, are challenging the fragile democratic order which is struggling to find its voice in the wilderness of corruption and nepotism. Fratricidal conflict between Shias and Sunnis is weakening the social fabric of a country which has witnessed many a military coups and resultant military dictatorships.
But on the other hand, there are some encouraging signs too. For the first time in its 66 years of independent existence, a democratically elected government is dying a natural death after completing mandate five year period. Earlier, generals had either seized power directly as in 1958, 1968, 1977 and 1999 or colluded with the civilian governments to undermine democratically governments. Half of its existence has been ruled by the military which has even dominated national affairs during the so called civilian rule.
It is expected now that a smooth transition will take place from one elected government to another which has been chosen by people in a secret ballot. Not only this, the election is being held under an interim government which has taken charge from an outgoing administration for ensuring free, fair and transparent elections. For this suitable amendments were made in the Constitution which necessitated consensus among the political class.
After lot of negotiations among the leaders of the political parties, retired chief justice of Balochistan High Court Mr Hazar Khan Khoso has been appointed the caretaker prime minister who would run the administration till a duly elected government assumes charge. An election commission has also been constituted which enjoys the confidence of the majority of the political establishment. It has been given full powers almost similar to that of the Election Commission of India.
But entrenched vested political interests have made the functioning of the Election Commission a mockery. While through consensus a chief election commissioner (CEC) with impeccable credentials was appointed, the other four members were chosen by provincial governments on the basis of patronage and partisan consideration making the Election Commission virtually ineffective because the CEC is just one sobering voice.
In any case, the electoral environment, despite deficiencies, is relatively much better and possibly the best which offers hope that democracy may stabilise Pakistan. There are many serious challenges to the fragile democratic system and one of them is the fragmented polity.
According to opinion polls, PML-N is leading the electoral race with chances of its president Nawaz Sharif becoming the next prime minister are bright but whether he would emerge a clear winner is highly doubtful. The PML-N may emerge as the single largest party to lead a coalition government in Islamabad. The PML-N is largely concentrated in Punjab province and thus its appeal in limited.
In the outgoing 342 member National Assembly of Pakistan, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) had a strength of124 while the PML-N had 91 members. Apart from these two, there were 8 other parties which had their members in the National Assembly. There were 18 independent legislators too. There are indications that the situation may get reversed with the PML-N emerging to lead the pack.
The PPP is on a losing wicket as President Asif Ali Zaradri has lost whatever little appeal he had because of bad governance and ineffective administration. He is the co-chairman of the PPP with his son Bilawal Bhutto being the other co-chairman. Media reports suggest that there are serious differences between the two which is bound to damage the PPP’s electoral prospects further.
However, the PPP, which has its presence in all the four provinces, is likely to remain a force to reckon with. The PML-N would require much more managing skills to master diverse and diametrically opposite forces to run the next government.
Though chances of the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) are not easy to forecast yet the PTI may emerge as an important player in a highly fractured polity where everyone is trying to grab his or her share in the political pie. The PTI was founded in 1996 but it gained traction only in 2011-12 when he held a massive rally on October 30, 2011 for which he toured the country extensively. His appeal lies in educated youth. But how much of this gets translated in votes is yet to be seen.
The coming back of former president General Pervez Musharraf from his five year long exile has added yet another element to the prevailing political confusion. Political pundits are not giving many points to General Musharraf but he is sure to eat into the votes of the established political players thus adding to further fragmentation of Pakistan’s political system.
At least six more parties are in the fray making the task of psephologists much more difficult. In any case, there are interesting as well as challenging times for Pakistan and the next government in whatever composition would have to grapple with multitude of problems. There is no escape from it and the political class would require flexibility and craft to master the situation so that democracy is strengthened and the political ambition of country’s Armed forces are kept at bay. [IFS]