By Harihar Swarup
Nobody ever described Jawaharlal Nehru’s victories as waves though he led the Congress to victory with 364 seats in 1952; 371 in 1957; and 361 in 1962. Talk of wave became fashionable 1971 onward when Indira Gandhi won by a landslide victory on ‘Garabi Hatao’ slogan in 1971; it was then called Indira wave. The defeat of Indira and Sanjay Gandhi in 1977 was attributed to a Janata wave. When Mrs Gandhi returned to power in 1980, it was called anti-Janata Party wave. The biggest of all wave swept the polls in the months following assassination of Indira Gandhi. In December, 1984, the wave turned into “Rajiv tornado” enabling the young leader to get highest-ever number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
The election wave went into hibernation for about two decades to resurface in 2014 Lok Sabha election. This time it is called Modi wave. One does not know if it is a wave or a whiff of cold breeze? Anyway the velocity of so-called Modi will be known on May 16 when ballot boxes are opened.
With only one round of nine-phase of election-2014 remaining, there is intense speculation in political circles on the number seats the Congress and the BJP will get? Riding on the crest of so-called Modi wave, BJP is sure of emerging as single-largest party.
And, is the Modi wave strong enough to enable the BJP get 200-220 Lok Sabha seats? If opinion polls are to be believed, it is only matter of a week before Narendra Modi moves to 7, Race Course, the Prime Minister’s official residence.
With remote chance of the Congress and its allies forming the government, most of the action in post-poll scenario will be in the BJP and it is bound to be centred around Modi. BJP leaders are confident that the Modi wave is powerful enough to enable the party achieve the magic figure of 273 and it may form the government on its own. In that event there will be no difficulty in Modi becoming the Prime Minister.
It will be really tough if the Modi magic did not work. The BJP has, at present, only two powerful allies – Akalis and the Shiv Sena – but certainly they are not in a position to get enough seats to help the BJP form the government.
Then the BJP will have to look to the three powerful ladies in Indian politics – Mayawati, Mamata and Jayalalithaa. As of now, they are deadly against Modi but the BJP leaders are sure of persuading the AIADMK to support the BJP-led dispensation. BJP leaders feel that then Mayawati may also fall in line as she was their erstwhile ally. They did not expect Mamata to support Modi. Then, it may not be too comfortable sailing for BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in his own party itself. Behind, only a few of top leaders want Modi to become the Prime Minister.
The BJP expects to win 52 seats in Uttar Pradesh and do a clean sweep in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. One wonders if the party’s fortunes are looking up in Haryana and Karnataka, where former Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa has returned. In Punjab Akalis are facing powerful anti-incumbency and the BJP is only on periphery. Even the BJP’s stalwart, Arun Jaitley, contesting from Amritsar, is feeling the heat and struggling hard to defeat former Chief Minister, Amarinder Singh, the formidable Congress candidate. In this scenario it will be foolhardy for Akalis to hope to win “not less than 11 seats”.
In Andhra Pradesh, there is a feeling that the Telugu Desam party may not pull off big numbers. The TDP leaders fear that they might be dumped in favour of YSR Congress, which may garner more seats. The BJP strategists have plans to reach the required number of seats in case the party falls short of numbers.
The Congress is hoping for a situation akin to the one in 2004, when it won 145 seats. The party feels that if it can get around 150 seats, it can return to power. Congress strategists think that if the BJP is limited to around 180 seats, it would be difficult for Modi to bridge the gap, as parties that are not part of the NDA or the UPA will have a sizeable share of seats.
The Congress’s plan hinges on winning seats in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. Knowing that every seat will count, the party leadership has fielded senior leaders like Amarinder Singh and Ambika Soni in Punjab. The Congress leadership feels that the party will do very well in Punjab and improve its numbers.
In Assam and Kerala, the party expects to hold on to its tally in the last Lok Sabha elections. It hopes to get two to three seats in Uttarakhand. In Karnataka, Congress hopes to replicate its success in the Assembly elections last year. Holding on at least half the seats the party had won in the BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat in 2009 and winning a few seats in Rajasthan will be crucial for the party. In UP the party is hoping of winning at least 14 seats. In Telangana, the Congress is eying 11 of 17 seats.
The Congress leaders are widely off the mark if they hope to form the government , as it did in 2004 and in 2009. The situation now is vastly different; the popular mood is against the ruling UPA. The least the Congress can do is to stop Modi from forming the government. Will it succeed? Wait for the D-day – May 16 – when the results will be out. [IPA]