By S. Sethuraman
India re-enters a single party dominance at the Centre after thirty years but without an effective opposition for a constitutional democracy, with the installation of Mr Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of the BJP-led NDA Government on May 26. Mr Modi (63) comes to the highest office after uniquely galvanising the nation, with fewer parallels before, to offer governance that would work for the poor.
The dramatic political transformation in India is being watched around the world for the promise of a stable government restoring the nation’s prestige and setting the pace for India’s rapid growth into a global power. But what matters most within is the fulfillment of the myriad aspirations of millions resoundingly reflected in the emphatic mandate of the 2014 elections.
It is as well that Mr Modi has initially gathered some of the leaders of the closer South Asian region, notably Pakistan, on the occasion of his entering office – though not without incurring some caveats and protests in the South over the invitation extended to the Sri Lankan President Mr Rajapakse. This has triggered the absence of the powerful TN Chief Minister Ms. Jayalalithaa, a friend of Mr Modi, at his swearing-in ceremony on May 26.
Not only that, even the Chief Ministers of West Bengal and Odisha, Ms. Mamata Banerjee (TMC) and Mr. Naveen Patnaik (BJD) respectively, with massive mandates for their own parties, have decided to stay away. In a way, it signals that these parties, along with Ms. Jayalalithaa’s AIDMK, would function like a watchdog on the new Government’s policies, specially in the perspective of safeguarding states’ interests. For the present, their idea seems to be to maintain “equi-distance between BJP and Congress”.
This 91-member combine could well be a major pressure group in the new Lok Sabha, as a discredited Congress with just 44 members takes the opposition. On the whole, amid all rejoicings in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by Mr Modi, a sour note has been struck in Tamil Nadu, where all parties have made no secret of their antipathy to the Sri Lankan President over his “brutal suppression of human rights” of Sri Lankan Tamils.
Ms. Jayalalithaa and DMK and other party leaders including the T N Congress have denounced the “ill-advised” move to invite Mr Rajapakse which they said was “wounding the Tamils’ sentiments”. BJP ally in Tamil Nadu, Mr Vaiko (MDMK) sponsored protest rallies in Tamil Nadu and the capital. Mr Rajapakse’s attempt to bring with him the Tamil National Alliance leader Mr C V Wigneswaran with him was thwarted by the latter, stating he would not make himself guilty of “facilitating tokenism”.
While Colombo looks at the political change in New Delhi for the opening of a new phase of cooperation and partnership, without being vetoed by Tamil Nadu parties, Mr Rajapakse has shown little interest in human rights as well as in making progress on grant of autonomy to Tamil provinces. Mr Wigneswaran, who heads the North East provincial council, said with no power, activities of these elected councils were stultified while the Tamils lived in fear with continued presence of military though the civil war ended in 2009. For Mr Modi, the Sri Lankan Tamil issue would be a sensitive one and he would have to prove his credibility in Tamil Nadu.
Bangladesh has sent its Speaker for the swearing-in ceremony of Mr Modi at Rashtrapati Bhavan. Ms. Mamata Banerjee has been highly critical of Mr Modi and the BJP, and both leaders virulently spoke against each other during the election campaign in West Bengal. But Mr Modi, as Prime Minister, would need to persuade Ms. Banerjee, where former PM Dr Manmohan Singh failed, to help in implementing the agreement on sharing of river waters with Bangladesh, a key issue in bilateral relations.
After some suspense with the Army demurring, Pakistan Prime Minister Mr Nawaz Sharif has responded to the invitation from Mr Modi in the hope his visit would mark the resumption of bilateral dialogue to resolve outstanding issues including Kashmir. Here again, at home the Congress spokesman has reminded how BJP itself had been opposed to resumption of any dialogue without concrete assurances from Pakistan on terrorism and LAC intrusions.
These issues, out of several other challenges both on the domestic and foreign policy front, have suddenly been thrown up following the invitations extended to Sri Lankan, Pakistan and Bangladesh heads of government along with other SAARC leaders, on the occasion of assumption of by Mr. Modi. Relations with major powers including USA, China and Russia have to be re-visited but Mr Modi has all the skills needed to navigate out of what may seem to be thorny problems.
Currently, there remain some misgivings about the way Mr Modi may exercise his authority, perhaps as in Gujarat, and about possible sectional pressures he might come under in days to come. But it is universally accepted he would be decisive certainly on the economic front, which can bring about a distinct change for him as well as the country. Positive signs are already visible, the way markets have been soaring, even if somewhat irrationally, in the rupee strengthening and a mood of optimism prevailing among business and industry.
The NDA is back in power after a decade, its first Government having been reputedly led by the BJP veteran, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, (1999-2004), with a record of stable governance and economic reforms. Mr Vajpayee had also been a votary of normalization of relations between the two nuclear neighbours and made a historic opening with a visit to Pakistan for confidence-building measures.
Mr Modi now heads NDA which has a total of 336 members, a near two-thirds majority in the 543-member House. BJP itself has an impressive strength of 282 within NDA to set the course of developments under Mr Modi over the next five years. Mr Modi has favoured a leaner Government, with reorganized Ministries, both to co-ordinate better and speed up procedures for projects and development, which would conform to his mantra of “maximum governance and minimum government”.
At the top of the Modi Government’s priorities will undoubtedly be the state of economy and the earliest revival of growth trajectory with investments and steps to control inflation. Business sentiment and investor confidence already seem to be returning and capital flows have helped to strengthen the rupee and shore up reserves now above 303 billion dollars. It should now be easier to finance current account deficit.
Early actions would probably be known within days relating to restoring macro-economic stability more firmly, holding inflation in check and clearing bottlenecks for infrastructure development. Mr. Modi’s advisers are already working out the policy agenda, for the immediate as well as those that would figure in the President’s Address to the new Parliament in July.
Mr Modi himself may go on record over the next few days with his ideas as are being firmed up by his advisers and where his priorities are, for the immediate and medium term. Government’s domestic and external policies and the legislative programme for the Budget Session would be set out in President Pranab Mukherjee’s inaugural address to new Parliament next month.
Work on the Budget for 2014-15, to be presented following the President’s address has already begun in consultation with the Prime Minister’s advisers and would involve major decisions on a new fiscal road map taking into account a likely moderation in subsidies, mainly fuel and fertilizers, and revenue mobilization measures. The new Finance Minister will unfold the revised fiscal policy when he presents the Budget which would also reflect tax and other reforms planned by the Modi Government. (IPA Service)