By Toki Blah
It’s human nature to be wise after the event and the multitude of ‘See! I told you so’ comments after the landslide victory of the BJP in the recently concluded Lok Sabha Elections simply prove the point. Nearly everyone, except INC diehards, has now suddenly become an expert political analyst as to why the Congress lost so badly and why the BJP could manage such a bumper harvest. No bets, but the debate on the subject is likely to continue till the cows come home. In between, there are side characters like Rahul Gandhi, his mother, Mamta Bannerjee, good old Arvind Kejirwal and their ilk who foresee- ably would continue to provide minor media entertainment in days to come. Then there is the ex Prime Minister of UPA -2, Dr Manmohan Singh. We don’t expect to hear much about the gentleman in the future. He was a person who abhorred expressions of any kind but acknowledgement is made here to a person who picked up a wrong career. He probably would have made a fortune had he but taken up gambling or poker as a profession rather than politics. But that’s beside the point, and the point basically is, ‘India like the rest of the world is going through a phase of change!’.
Change can be frightening but also exciting at times and the last five years, witnessed some historic changes in India, the impact of which is yet to be fully understood. In the initial phase of the past half decade, there were some who were hellbent on changing the profile of Independent Democratic India into an Independent oligarchic India. The rule of a few, perpetuated by dynastic mythology, was an attempt to change the face of Indian democracy and politics. Growing consternation in the belief that a paralysis in governance had overtaken the whole country was widespread. The grip of Central rule had weakened and India’s federal structure was at stake. A weak central Government paved way for the emergence of local political satraps who, for their own political self interest, were least bothered about national security and integrity. From West Bengal in the East to Tamil Nadu in the South, these satraps began to impinge upon the nation’s foreign profile. We were heading for a constitutional catastrophe of epic proportions. Change, a most unwholesome type of change, was overtaking India. There was despondency in the air. Now with a bit of hindsight again, one can take pride that the largest democracy in the World, albeit with a majority electorate of rural semi illiterates, held fast to its democratic ethos. We didn’t break; nor did we run; nor did we despair. Instead we welcomed change; Indians found it exhilarating; grabbed it and managed change through the ballot box, a feat, few democracies can boast off.
Change is also inevitable, but it comes faster when a change agent is put in place. In the second decade of the 21st Century two change agents can arguably take credit for expediting change in India. The first was the Election Commission with its call for General elections to the 16th Lok Sabha. The hustlings totally demolished the UPA II and brought in the NDA II, a change that caught many of us by surprise. It set the stage for entrance of the 2nd change agent, Narendra Modi, the 18th Prime Minister of India. On the lawns of Rastrapati Bhavan , heads of India’s SAARC neighbours crowded in, like curious school boys, to witness the swearing in of Narendra Modi and his Cabinet. A signal was sent, sulking local satraps notwithstanding, that India was once again poised to claim its rightful place in the South Asian chessboard of international diplomacy. It was ready once again to take the lead and not play second fiddle to US, Chinese or any other super power. Affirmation of this intent was demonstrated with Modi’s first foreign visit – to our northern neighbour – the hermit kingdom of Bhutan. Calming the immediate neighbourhood was the name of the game. Conferring Bhutan with the status of ‘most favoured neighbour’, showering it with unprecedented economic assistance, showed the seriousness of the intent.
This neighbourhood outreach programme however appears to be just part of India’s new foreign policy. The larger paradigm shift in our foreign policy veers on a deliberate indifference to the West with a fresh and invigorating thrust towards the East. It could be the natural outcome of America’s visa denial to the erstwhile CM of Gujarat. It might be the simple upshot of the, Devyani Khobragade incident. Whatever the reason, the fact remains that the Modi regime appears to be fixed on taking the Look East policy to its logical conclusion. The next foreign visit of the Indian Prime Minister is to Japan with whom a new and exciting affiliation appears to be on the cards. Japan is an economic giant with serious and growing security problems with its neighbour China, a soulmate to an India nursing similar sentiments. Japans economy is basically tied up to its imports of oil, iron and raw material, much of which passes through the Malacca straits. Its exports are of high value technological products, some in the defence sector which could be of immense interest to Indian defence. India’s Look East Policy ( LEP) with its emphasis on safe sea lanes, particularly through the bottleneck Malacca Straits, is of mutual interest to both countries. The LEP therefore seems destined for a greater role in India’s foreign relations reach out programme in the foreseeable future.
As one speaks of such a future; about the Look East Policy and India’s increasing preoccupation with it, the location and space for North East India within this new dispensation needs to be articulated and spelt out. This backward region, treated as an appendage that no one knows how to deal with, has been for the last 100 years, on the lookout for a way out of its landlocked dilemma. It is a predicament that has shaped the security environment and the economic profile of the NE. It is an impasse responsible for a mindset that believes survival is possible only from New Delhi handouts. Now for the first time an opportunity presents itself wherein the people of this region should be able to articulate their own priorities and preferences. For some states of the NE looking east through Mynmar is an option. For others looking South, through Bangladesh, for transit facilities to the Bay of Bengal offers a more tantalising economic breakthrough. Politicians, thought leaders and policy makers of North East India need to take heed of these opportunities and the aspirations they ignite in the hearts of the people of the region.
We need to take heed and analyse, the June 8th statements of the PM as he gave utterance to his Government’s 3S formula to bring in employable skill education and revolutionary changes in agriculture and the energy sector. These utterances open up a paradigm shift in so far as development of the NE region is concerned. It calls for a reassessment of both out strengths and our weaknesses. We are weak in relation to a production dependent economy. We don’t have the infrastructure, the communication capability, the technology nor the expertise. Capital investment to bring the region at par with the rest of the country will be exorbitant and time consuming. We can afford neither. Production can only be viable through massive Government subsidies and this is not sustainable development.
On the other hand the NE can boast of an existing English based educational system. None can dispute the potential of the region to impart English based internet education. A growing need for most non English speaking SE nations and it is a service the NE can so easily provide. We have a strong medicare environment where reputed medical institutions are already in palace and more can be created. It can serve the medicare requirements of the countries around us. Aside from the above, the region as a whole can rightfully claim its undisputed potential as a leader in both scenic and cultural tourism. These are social capital aspects that the region and its people possess in abundance. Their potential as a base for a service oriented economy has been neglected for far too long. Time to recognise where our strength lies. Time for both the Centre and the regional leadership to take a fresh look at the region and its latent, hidden forte. Time to link up the same with the emerging potentials of the Look East policy.
Author is the President of ICAREan organisation that focuses on issues of good governance