Delhi braces for another round
By Kalyani Shankar
Almost after a year of President’s Rule, the 7th February Elections to Delhi Assembly is crucial for various reasons. Delhi has always been important even though it is waiting to get the status of a full statehood.
It is a do or die battle for the AAP as stakes are high. If all goes well it can aspire to form the government a second time or at worst it can occupy the opposition space vacated by the Congress.
For the BJP too stakes are high, as these elections will be seen as a referendum on Modi government at the Centre. Delhi was the BJP’s citadel once but for the past sixteen years it had to sit outside watching the Congress government. In the 2013 December polls, though the BJP emerged as the single largest party it decided to sit in the opposition allowing the AAP and the Congress to form the government headed by AAP chief Kejriwal, but this government lasted just 49 days. Since the May 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has been preparing to conquer Delhi. Had it opted for polls in last June or July, the party would have swept the polls in the wake of the Modi tsunami but the BJP decided to wait with the result, the poll predictions show that it is not in the same advantageous position.
The Delhi elections are seen as a test of Modi’s popularity, and the toughest since the Lok Sabha elections. These will be completely different form the other state Assembly polls since Modi took over in May last. In Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress was in power – either on its own or with an ally facing acute anti incumbency. Combined with it was the demoralization in the Congress, which enabled the BJP to make handsome gains.
The BJP is totally depending on the Modi magic with no local leader to take on the responsibility. Moreover, the local unit has made little effort to face the elections when Kejriwal had made every effort to reinvent and rejuvenate his party.
Secondly, the fight is between the BJP and the AAP compared to the three-cornered battle among the Congress, BJP and the AAP in December 2013. The Congress, as the then ruling party both at the Centre and the state was in the dock.
While the BJP is trying to convert the campaign as a Modi versus Kejriwal contest, the AAP is trying to turn it into a fight between local BJP leaders and its convener Arvind Kejriwal. The BJP has not projected any chief ministerial face. This lack of chief ministerial candidate has been dogging the BJP in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir polls but Modi has been able to handpick a candidate of his choice after the polls.
Thirdly, the AAP is one step ahead in the campaign with a high level and high decibel campaign. Even the BJP chief Amit Shah, who is personally micro managing the Delhi campaign, was forced to concede this reality. Fourthly, while the AAP is offering some sops like lowering of electricity tariff, abolition of water charges for the lower segments the BJP has launched a negative campaign. The BJP is also facing the heat from the people because of the inflation, high prices of vegetables and dissatisfaction with the rule of the Lt Governor. Of course Modi spoke of giving 24-hour electricity to Delhi residents and the choice of electricity supply companies to consumers, he had remained silent about full statehood to Delhi.
Fifthly, the Congress is shrinking further and this is not good news for the BJP in Delhi. Had there been a three way split, the BJP would have gained but now the AAP has chances of occupying the opposition space vacated by the Congress.
Sixthly, the BJP calculation that AAP will sink in the last 12 months has proved to be wrong. The young party not only managed to hold steady but also to remain afloat. Moreover, it has also succeeded in regaining the support of the media.
Seventhly, the vote share difference between the AAP and the BJP is narrow, as the AAP has increased its vote share to 32 per cent from 29 per cent in Lok Sabha polls. If AAP improves further, it would be to the disadvantage of the BJP.
On the other hand, it is not rosy for then AAP all the way. If the party fails to make it this time, it may be difficult to survive for the next five years. The voter enthusiasm also has come down over the past year. Some people have not forgiven Kejriwal for running away from responsibility.
Secondly, the AAP has lost the freshness it had in 2013 when people looked at Kejriwal as a Messiah and believed in his politics. The party is now struggling for campaign finance as the funds had become dry. Moreover, the Lok Sabha elections had proved that AAP had been ambitious in spreading it swings without preparation.
Thirdly, the party is ridden with constant in-fighting. Some leaders had even left the party protesting against authoritarian style of functioning of Kejriwal.
Fourthly, Kejriwal’s vote bank is not in tact. The middle and upper classes have moved away from him while he is struggling to retain the slum dwellers and Muslims.
The BJP and the AAP may hold the number one and two positions and the BJP might once again emerge as the single largest party and with luck, it might even form the government. But there is still the danger of the elections producing a hung Assembly. Delhi cannot afford to go for another period of instability and it is for the people to realize this and vote decisively. (IPA Service)