The ceasefire in Ukraine was signed in Minsk, capital of Belarus. But there was sound of shelling in the rebel-held cities of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine the day before the agreement was inked by Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France. The deal is still fragile. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was the main architect of the deal, herself said that the ceasefire only offered a glimmer of hope. Action has to translate promises into reality. The prospect of durable peace depends on the attitude of Russia which is just a guarantor. Almost 5500 people have been killed in encounters since April, 2014. About 5.2 million people live in the conflict zone. What clouds optimism is the fact that a similar agreement signed in September 2014 had fallen through.
Vladimir Putin is upbeat as Russia and the rebels have made considerable gain from the deal. The Ukrainian military have to give up its line of control. What is more, Kiev has been forced to introduce a new Constitution. According to it, rebel regions will form their own police, appoint judges and will be allowed to trade with Russia. It is significant on the other hand that the deal guarantees Ukraine’s sovereignty and grants it full control over the areas held by rebels. The border with Russia will be back to Kiev following a full political settlement by the end of 2015. IMF has offered Kiev a $ 17.5 billion reform package. Ukraine will be able to reopen banks and transfer pensions to the eastern region. Russia is down with sanctions imposed by Western powers and EU leaders mean business. It may be Putin’s plan to give back the rebel region to Ukraine as that is likely to strengthen his bargaining position on the global scene.