The Assam Puzzle

The electoral scene in Assam is getting totally fragmented. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi made a vague hint that there may be an unprecedented understanding with the Aso Gana Parishad (AGP) but that has proved wrong. The BJP also failed to step into the breach. The AGP has decided to go it alone. The BJP has gained its strength with Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally fighting Tarun Gogoi. It showed remarkable upswing in the parliamentary elections from 12% to 37% though the state has ethnic and muslim problems. It has now joined hands with the Boro People’s Front (BPF). The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) which represents muslim interests is also in the fray single-handed. Speculation about the Congress party going for a tie-up with the AIUDF was baseless as that would have lost the Congress a number of Hindu votes. Some Congress leaders like Himanta Biswa Sarma have joined the BJP but that may not alter the electoral calculation.
The BJP has a lot to reckon with. Modi may prove as much of a fiasco as in Bihar. A parliamentary election is quite different from assembly poll. The ruling Congress has achieved a bit of lost ground with ULFA leader Anup Chetia in the bag. The Assam gas cracker project has also finally got off the ground. Gogoi’s special bid is to take the role of representing local cultutal nuances which the BJP doesn’t know. As far as sub-nationalism is concerned, it is the AGP preserve. It is not unlikely that the poll will end up with a hung assembly.