J.Jayalalitha, AIADMK Supremo and Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu died leaving a political void in her state and causing uncertainty nationwide. The seven time General Secretary popularly known as revolutionary leader, Jayalalitha took the party to new heights. Last May, she led the party to a historic win. The party cadres now feel orphaned. O Panneerselvam, a trusted lieutenant of Jayalalitha, has been accepted as stand-in CM but he hardly matches his leader’s stature. The major test for the ruling party is the upcoming local body polls. A political analyst has said that for unity to become strength, the party has to go through a presidium of sub-regional leaders. The jockeying for power in the AIADMK will be of advantage to the DMK though that is weakened by infighting. There is also uncertainty over the role of Sasikala, Jaya’s aide whose faultlines are now becoming prominent. She played a key role during Jaya’s illness, controlling access to the leader and will be a vital factor in ensuring stability in future. Panneerselvam may be designated in a formal manner but only support from Sasikala will preserve his strength and enable him to maintain relations between the government and the party. On the other hand, it may lead to a power struggle.
It is not clear if legislators will accept a new CM chosen by Sasikala. Challenges will arise in the near future. The caste equation will come into play. There may be a split and a breakaway group which may go over to the DMK. All this is speculation. The AIADMK will of course be dependent on its close ties with the Centre. Support of the Raj Bhavan is a must. The BJP will do its best to dig in the state to fill the political space. The Congress does not seem to be on a good wicket in the race for a stable position.