By H. H. Mohrmen
The recent call made by Mr H S Shylla, former minister to all regional parties of the need to have a grand pre-poll alliance and his voluntary decision to step aside and support Ardent Basaiawmoit in the ensuing election has sparked a debate all over the place. Shylla’s statement is a bolt from the blue for those who don’t want to see regional parties working together. On the other hand, it is a ray of hope for the large chunk of regional parties’ supporters in the state. But the most important question is an the impact of this move on the post 2018 election political scenario in the state and also on the future of the regional parties as such.
Some have dismissed the entire proposal and the subsequent alliance as mere pre-election gimmick and concluded that nothing concrete will come out of it because regional parties will never ever be able to work together. The naysayers remind us that this is not the first time that such a move was made and questioned how this will not meet the same fate yet again. Some are of the opinion that the very fact that the move was made by H S Shylla, the youth who almost singlehandedly led the ‘three-flag movement’ is evidence enough that this is a genuine move, while others are sceptical because regional party leaders have the tendency to defect to the party in power in the event of a coalition government being formed.
Well, at the end of the day it depend on one’s perspective whether one sees the glass half full or half empty. Whether one is a pessimist or an optimist one will have to wait and see where the alliance of these the major regional parties will take the state. Though the last alliance did not last more than year, yet Shylla deserves to be given the benefit of the doubt because unlike now, he was then only a youth leader; an actor from outside the political arena while now he is one of the actors to make this general desire come true.
So why this urgent need of a grand alliance of regional parties? The future of the regional parties in the state is uncertain post the 2018 elections because of the advent of the two new National parties in the political scenario of the state. In the past elections in Meghalaya were a tussle between the numerous regional parties and the Congress and occasionally independent candidates also play some role. But that is no longer true now. This time around, the Congress may not be as popular as it was in the last election but one cannot deny that it is still a force to reckon with in the coming election. But it is the entry of the two other national parties in a big way in the next election which will have a drastic impact on the vote shares of the parties particularly the regional parties. The truth is, if anyone or both of the national parties make any dent in the coming elections, it will be at the cost of the regional parties. The question is whose vote share is going to be affected by the entry of these two major players?
It is said that during the elections the voters of other parties in the state fall in love with their candidates and their respective parties but the Congress’ voters always fall in line, which means that the Congress is not going to be affected. But it is the vote share of the regional parties which is going to be greatly affected. The point is, if the regional parties continue to fight among themselves, the future that is in store for them is that they will be consigned to oblivion and will only find mention in the pages of history. The Congress will continue to hold to its vote shares and the two parties – the BJP or the NPP will replace the regional parties and in the future there will be no more regional parties in the state.
If there is no regional party alliance it will be advantage NPP as it will make a big inroad into the different areas of the state and it will also play a major role in formation of the next government in Meghalaya. The current calculation is that the region-wise tussle for vote share in the ensuing election is somewhat like this: In Garo hills the dominant players are the Congress versus NPP; in the Khasi Jaintia hills it will be the Congress, the regional parties and the NPP to some extent. But after the regional parties have formed a grand alliance, it will be a different game altogether. The alliance will be a game changer, because a united regional group will be a major player now. The alliance will give the Congress a run for their money in the Khasi Jaintia hills, while the NPP which has failed to make inroads into Khasi Jaintia hills in its earlier incarnation (NCP), is hopeful that this time around it will be different.
Perhaps some will question the relevance of regional parties in the contemporary state politics and conclude that they no longer serve any purposes but of the leaders with vested interest. Some are of the opinion that the only place for the regional parties is in the annals of history, but we cannot deny the fact that till the last elections the regional parties still garnered a considerably vote share of the entire votes polled in the state. In fact if we add together the votes polled by all regional parties; it still constitutes the largest vote share in the last election.
There is still a large section of voters who strongly believe in the need to have a representation of the regional aspirations in the state and national politics. They believe that the people of the state are unique and have their own aspirations and perhaps it is this same desire which has compelled the leaders of the regional parties to come together under one banner, to represent that aspiration. Now that the regional parties are able come together in an alliance the next job at hand is to decide on the candidates to contest as the alliance candidate in the many constituencies. Surely this is not going to be easy as there will be too many contenders for very few seats. There will be turncoats who will rebel because they were not allotted the alliance ticket to contest in the ensuing election and that is to be expected. Seat sharing will be tricky, but the very fact that the regional parties were able to come together under one umbrella is, in itself a great achievement for the regional parties.
After the alliance is worked out with the seat sharing, the next challenge is to come up with a manifesto or a common minimum program which will be a document that will guide the working of the alliance in the future.
The coming together of the regional parties in the state is for the survival of regional parties themselves because if they fail this time, then there will be no next time again. The situation will only provide leeway for the BJP and NPP to make inroads into the state’s politics, and what is left for the leader to do is to write the obituary note of regional party politics in the state.
In conclusion, if the grand alliance of regional parties succeeds then the tussle in the ensuing election will be between the Congress and the grand alliance in the Khasi and Jaintia hills and the Congress versus the NPP in the Garo hills region of the state because the presence of regional parties in Garo Hills is negligible. With this new development Meghalaya’s post election scenario will be interesting to watch.