By S Saraswathi
The official announcement of the Presidential candidates by the NDA and Opposition after much speculation and anxious wait has set the ball rolling for a reality check. With increase in the number of political parties and firm establishment of coalition politics, election of the President is in a way a test for survival of current alliances and opportunity for re-alignment.
From the beginning, there has been no sincere or serious effort to find a consensual candidate. Contest between the two main groups looked inevitable. Indeed, contest has been the rule and unopposed selection an exception that happened only once in presidential election. That was in 1977 when Neelam Sanjiva Reddy nominated by the Janata Party was elected after Internal Emergency when the Congress was in receding tide.
Voters being Parliament members of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha and MLAs of 31 States and Union Territories, building majority is no easy task in the politics of alliances fiercely pursued today. It necessarily involves coming together of many parties — many of them regional.
Electors in the Presidential election include 4,120 MLAs of 31 States + 776 MPs (543 Lok Sabha and 233 Rajya Sabha members) belonging to different parties. They are divided among the two major teams — NDA and UPA – the neutral group, and fence sitters for this indirect presidential election.
Majority by number of voters is not the decisive factor in this election. It is a rather complicated arithmetical exercise designed to ensure parity between the Union and States and to take into account relative population size represented by the voters. Each vote carries weightage, which is the value of votes. The value of the vote of every MP is equal throughout the country and is far higher than that of a MLA.
The value of the vote of MLAs differs from State to State as it is related to the population of concerned States and to the number of Assembly constituencies in that State. The value of one MLA’s vote is calculated as Total population of the State or Union Territory/Total number of elected members of the State divided by 1,000. The value of each MLA vote of each State is calculated and then the total value of votes of all MLAs of all States aggregated.
The value of the vote of each MP is equal to the total value of votes of all MLAs of all States/total number of elected members of MPs of LS and RS. Thus, the total value of votes of all the elected members of Parliament will be equal to the total value of votes of all the MLAs of all the States. This is intended to secure parity between the States and the Union. By this way, the total value of votes of 776 MPs is 5,49,495 and of MLAs 5,49,408.
A noteworthy feature of presidential poll is that there is no provision for issuing party whip and hence there is no scope for anti-defection law to play a role. Members are technically free to vote according to their wish. The hold is party discipline, and bondage within by any effective tie– voluntary or involuntary– serves to discourage cross voting.
Inapplicability of whip became the instrument of Indira Gandhi to field VV Giri against the official Congress nominee Neelam Sanjiva Reddy in 1969. Her appeal for “conscience vote” succeeded in elevating her candidate as the President. However, the price paid by the party was the great split and more than that, a permanent blot on the party.
The transitory character of political party alliances is being reaffirmed and openly exhibited today in extending support to the two principal contenders — Ram Nath Kovind and Meira Kumar. Each party and in some cases, each faction within a party has its own reason. Politics of alliance comes into play, but not “alliance dharma”.
For the BJP and the Congress alone, it is a contest between their candidates. For others, it is a question of supporting or opposing the candidates fielded by the two, or remaining in or leaving the block with which they are presently associated.
The biggest surprise is the decision of the JD(U) to support NDA nominee who happened to be the Bihar Governor. For the Congress which is hoping to cement a block for 2019 General Election, it is a shock. It triggered a war of words within the ruling grand alliance in Bihar.
For the onlookers, the break coming soon after the national “political summit” of non-NDA leaders at the birthday gathering at Karunanidhi’s residence in Chennai, it is an interesting development. For political analysts, it is a lesson in alliance politics which is already riddled with uncertainties. The party also openly expressed that it will be good for Bihar – a sound argument but unrelated to political alliance. Speculations on the future of the grand alliance of Bihar have started even as the temporary character of political teams is well known.
Loss of the JD(U) for the UPA is compensated by the support of Trinamool Congress–arch enemy of the Congress in West Bengal. It has also prompted one of its stalwarts, Digvijaya Singh, to call upon “all progressive forces” to wage a united fight against the BJP and the RSS on the basis of issues and ideology. He reminded the gathering of nine political parties “not to convert a political fight into a mere clash of personalities”.
The TMC support for UPA or Biju Janata Dal’s support for NDA are surprises which seem to indicate the kind of surprises in store in 2019 Lok Sabha election. The Left Front, already facing bleak future, seems compelled to sail with the Congress, however, odd it appears in the background of the Nuclear Deal issue in which it assumed an ideological posture and earned the admiration of several non-communists. It has to choose an ally now who is less incompatible rather than a like-minded colleague.
Mayawati’s BSP initially pledged support to NDA nominee on the basis of Dalit identity, but changed sides once UPA announced a candidate with the same identity plus the qualification of being a woman. It proves conclusively the fickle nature of political decisions. Despite officially extending support to Congress nominee, there are several within the Samajwadi Party in favour of the NDA candidate. Their performance will shed further light on the coherence of the party.
The hopelessly divided AIADMK cannot but support BJP candidate given the strong alliance of the DMK, its rival, with the Congress. Freedom of choice for all the factions of the party was closed even before PM’s call to the Tamil Nadu CM or Amit Shah’s approach to Panneerselvam faction, or Dinakaran’s personal calculations of advantage in going with the ruling BJP. While locally strong parties like the BJD, TDP, TRS and TMC can afford to make their independent choice, others like the DMK with varying fortunes and many small parties have to stick to their present partners.
There may be “coalition dharma”, but there is no “alliance dharma”. The pattern of alliances taking shape for the presidential poll shows that re-alignments of parties is possible and highly probable also for 2019 Lok Sabha election. — INFA
(The author is Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)