By Harihar Swarup
How fast the election scene is changing in Gujarat is reflected in the poll surveys conducted now and when the poll dates were announced. The Gujarat elections could be a dead heat between BJP and the Congress, according to an opinion poll released on last Monday (Dec 4). The poll predicted that both parties—Congress and BJP—would get 43 per cent each. This means victory for either of the two parties but the ground reality shows that wind is blowing in favour of the Congress. Who knows—it may turn into a hurricane? That’s what Congress leaders say. However, poll surveys predict a victory, may be a narrow one for the BJP, with the party getting 91 to 99 seats in the 182-member house while the Congress would get 78 to 86 seats.
In sharp contrast, the survey done by same agencies in August predicted that the BJP could cross 150 marks while the Congress would struggle to cross 30. The BJP won 115 seats in 2012 assembly poll while the Congress got 61.
The Lokniti-CSDS poll survey done for ABP News indicated that the sentiment against both demonetization and the GST has hardened as the campaign progressed and even the changes made to GST rates last month left more people dissatisfied than satisfied. Farmer resentment is also playing an important role in fuelling the rise of Congress in the state, according to poll survey.
Those who have visited Gujarat, and reports from Prime Minister’s state, reveal a widespread desire for change. PM’s popularity has not dipped as has the BJP’s stock in the state. The Gujarat elections are being watched internationally; it may have bearing on PM’s strongman image. It is not that people of Gujarat have great love for the Congress but when those unhappy with the BJP look other way, they find only the Congress. So, if the Congress gains, it will be by default.
There is evidently anger in some sections today—like Patidars, demanding reservation in jobs and education or farmers reeling under the fall in prices of their produce. There are some who feel the BJP must be taught a lesson for their “arrogance”. Rahul Gandhi is not ridiculed as before but listened attentively and the points made by him goes home. He has managed to put BJP on defensive with the help of a smart social media team, on “development” and “unemployment”. He has kept his election speeches away from usual Hindu—Muslim polarization and avoided any mention of 2002 riots. Also, Ahmed Patel’s election to Rajya Sabha was a turning point; it send a message to the Congress workers that victory could be snatched from the jaws of defeat.
Congress’s main problem is that the party does not have a well-oiled organizational muscle to convert peoples’ anger into votes; nor a charismatic chief ministerial candidate. In contrast, the BJP has a well-oiled poll machinery and there is no lack of resources.
In the changing situation, three very important young leaders have emerged on the electoral scene. Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani have captured the imagination of youth in their respective communities. Hardik’s strategy is to try and deliver the disaffected Patidar votes to Congress, not merely to oppose BJP and divide the anti-BJP vote. The Patidars have been the mainstay of BJP’s support since the 80s, and the 23-year-old Hardik has come to symbolize their anguish. He has emerged as the star campaigner of this election with crowds thronging to hear him.
There is also anti-incumbency of 22 years, compounded by the absence of a figure like Modi at the state level. On his part, PM is going all out to make an emotional pitch to woo voters, particular fence-sitters. Modi is the son of soil, who may have gone to Delhi, but has not forgotten the people of Gujarat, the poll outcome being a matter of Gujarat’s pride, and the Congress always having insulted the state.
The resentment against the BJP appears to be more visible in rural Gujarat, though people are vary of revealing their mind. A silent anger against the BJP is visible in Saurashtra, even in prosperous central Gujarat or the tribal belt in Bharuch, according to those journalists who visited these areas. But in cities it was back to Modi, and the urban and semi-urban seats account for 84 seats out of a total 182.
Even in Surat, where traders held a month-long agitation against GST, many are still inclined towards BJP. The Patidar factor has made the fight tough in four of 12 seats in Surat, traditionally BJP stronghold. If Congress can swing 6-7 per cent more votes than it did last time, the game will change. But the Congress leaders have to face the reality; while Gujaratis’ love for the BJP is diminishing, their faith in Modi still endures. (IPA Service)