By Dr S.Saraswathi
2019 General Election is undoubtedly heyday for “Gathbandhans” — a term that deserves to be entered in English dictionaries by virtue of its wide usage and meaningful sound. Several combinations of political parties are appearing on daily basis in this election season making people wonder which ones will ultimately survive as serious contenders for people’s choice. The latest show was witnessed in Kolkata on 19th January under the active sponsorship of Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal and TMC President.
A total of 23 parties attended the rally convened by the TMC which was claimed to be an anti-BJP “United India” rally. The Congress sent two representatives, but the two top leaders — present and previous party presidents — stayed away perhaps to keep its full entry into the alliance in suspense. Hence, it was neither a reincarnation of UPA as UPA III nor the Third Front, whose main character is to remain anti-BJP and anti-Congress. Most of the non-Congress parties were represented by their presidents.
It was an occasion that confirmed togetherness recently built between some bitter rivals like the SP and the BSP, Congress and the JD(S), and Congress and the TDP. It is an admission of the popularity of the BJP that requires pooling the strength of two dozen parties for electoral fight. It reminds us of the vow of the “Three Musketeers” of Dumas with a small correction, “All for one, and All against one” meaning one candidate for all parties in every constituency, and all parties against one party/one leader.
Notable was the presence of a BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha and two rebel BJP members — Yashwant Sinha and Arun Shourie, and absence of a few non-NDA parties — TRS from Telangana, BJD of Odisha, YSR Congress of Andhra Pradesh, and PDP of Jammu and Kashmir. Communist parties also did not participate in the rally organised by their arch rival.
Mamata Banerjee, from her statements, appears to have changed her earlier stance of anti-Congress and anti-BJP Third Front for which she made some efforts with Chandrasekhar Rao of TRS. Whatever may be her political calculations in changing the target(s) of the gathbandhan she is promoting, constituent units of this “unity” seem to be unaware and unconcerned, each concentrating on its own aim. Their common object is to displace the BJP, which is considered as a stumbling block to their sub-national aspirations even if it brings a vacuum in governance. The convener and many other parties, in the gathbandhan are also not happy with the “big brother” attitude of the Congress.
The Front, therefore, defies numbering at the present stage and can be identified by the place of the first rally. The second and third meetings are likely to take place in Amaravati and Delhi. The
Kolkata Gathbandhan comprises certain state-level pre-poll or post-poll alliances formed against the BJP and also tested recently. Among them, the BSP and SP alliance has already arrived at a seat-sharing formula in Uttar Pradesh for the coming Lok Sabha poll leaving out all including the Congress except perhaps the RLD.
Though this alliance was forged mainly to keep the BJP out of power, the two parties mentioned that they could not also forget their bitter experiences in their alliance with the Congress in the past — SP in 2017 and the BSP in 1996. The JD(S) and Congress in power in Karnataka is undergoing perennial conflict keeping suspense over the survival of the government at the end of every day. The Congress and TDP alliance has just now experienced utter defeat in Telangana Assembly election.
The new found friendship between the BSP and the SP setting aside all past tirades exchanged between them takes us back to 1990s when Kanshiram of the BSP and Mulayam Singh of SP came together to form a government in UP. It may affect the prospects of both the Congress and the BJP and hence a crucial factor in Kolkata Gathbandhan provided it is carried on faithfully. Under the circumstances, the Congress is under compulsion to express its readiness to contest all seats in UP without any ally as a matter of self-respect and frantically seek smaller allies as a political necessity.
In 2014, the combined vote share of the BSP and SP was 42.1 per cent in UP and if that of the RLD is added, it comes to 43 per cent, which is slightly above the vote percentage of the BJP. Neither the SP nor the BSP was with the BJP in 2014 to upset the saffron party’s performance. It is also difficult to believe that the alliance made will be able to obtain the sum total of their individual votes as elections do not work like simple arithmetic. Expectations, if any, that all anti-BJP votes would go to this alliance overlooking the implications of the “Gathbhandan” phenomenon are also questionable in the Lok Sabha election as people seem to be aware of the weaknesses of a coalition of multiple parties with individual ambitions.
Pre-poll alliances have to undergo two steps — one to arrive at some common policies and programmes, and the other an acceptable seat-sharing arrangement. No common formula for seat sharing — not even a commonsense approach of selecting the most popular local candidate — will be acceptable for all parties or in all places. Selection of candidates even within a party is not simple. Sometimes, even a very small party with very few seats can upset a coalition government in a political situation, where coalitions are not based on ideologies and are opportunistic to get power and positions.
Former PM and JD(S) leader H.D Deve Gowda wants a common election manifesto. His suggestion touches a very important area, but not without its own hitches. Whether special status for Andhra Pradesh — a demand that led to TDP’s withdrawal from NDA — can be achieved in a federal front government for example, is not a minor point, but not mentioned by any party. Outwardly, it seems more difficult in a federal front with States making similar claims. Formulating a policy for sharing river water and linking rivers to be chalked out by consensus in the federal front is nothing short of a miracle.
The Mamata-led gathbandhan cannot ignore the moves of some prominent non-Congress and non-BJP parties to come together to assert their importance. These will be needed whichever alliance gets nearest to the seat of government. The TRS, YSR Congress, and BJD, which are planning to work out a common strategy, need to be watched.
A group of regional parties will not be able to satisfy all regional ambitions of its members — be it development, or language. Unity of regional parties can survive only if common national thinking overrides all local aspirations. Governance of the country is far different from that of a State. Few regional parties have sound views on foreign matters, national finance, and national development. An amalgamation of State parties or State governments is necessary for national planning and administration, but not adequate to form the national government. Such coalitions have to convert themselves as a national union for the good of the entire nation. — INFA
(The writer is former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)