The BJP in Karnataka can smile only for a while now. The political crisis in the state has passed only the first post in a long and arduous journey ahead. The Speaker’s disqualification of 11 MLAs on Sunday, in a follow-up to a similar action on three legislators, came after these elected representatives succeeded in toppling the JDS-Congress government led by HD Kumaraswamy. While the heat is turned on the errant legislators, and the BJP is set to run an alternative government there, no one is sure as to how long this new attempt would last.
New chief minister BS Yeddiyurappa is gripped by a sense of political uncertainty. With the disqualification of 14 MLAs from the ruling side, the assembly is left with a strength of 208. Yeddiyurappa commands the support of 105 BJP legislators, which provides him the majority to win the confidence vote Monday and also the leeway to run the government without hassles in the assembly. Yet, his path ahead is paved with thorns.
The Speaker’s action has invited trouble for the CM in the immediate future itself. If the disqualifications were done on legally tenable grounds, it would necessitate by-elections to these seats. This throws the ball again in the people’s court. They are the masters in deciding who should govern them. Democracy gives them as much of strength and importance. BSY cannot laugh his heart out with the wafer-thin majority of one seat in the assembly. The by-elections will remain a Damocles’ Sword over his head. If the JDS-Congress combine manages to win more seats than the BJP, the game is over. BSY can climb down the steps with the same pace with which he climbed it up to grab power.
A possibility is that after running the government for a brief while, the CM would advise the governor to dissolve the assembly. As long as he enjoys majority support in the house, his advice will need be heeded by the governor. The only good thing for the CM and BJP is that elections to the new assembly can be held while the BJP is in power. This is not to say being in power helps a party win the polls. At best, it gives minor comfort to the BJP there. BJP has played its cards with great care this time, giving out an impression that this defection game was a problem of contradictions within the JDS-Congress alliance itself. Still, voters are by their very nature unpredictable. This is the time to wait and watch.