Sri Lanka is set for a change of governance. The presidential polls saw the return to power of the Rajapaksa family, with former defence secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa winning the people’s mandate against the ruling United National Party’s Sajith Premadasa – another dynasty figure in the Island nation. The Podujana Peramuna Party (SLPP) outwitted the ruling side; and the new president is set to take oath on Monday, which might be followed by the return to power of former strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa as PM.
The two brothers had worked hand-in-hand to end the Tamil separatism in Sri Lanka, and Mahinda’s 10 years in power saw the island nation managing finally to end the decades-old LTTE problem and restore peace. It also helped the nation in its aspirations for economic recovery through a revival of the tourism sector which was the main casualty of the LTTE violence. Yet, Mahinda lost the polls after a 10-year-rule. Things appeared to go well for those opposed to Rajapaksa, but the Easter Sunday bomb blasts at the hands of Islamic militants, which killed 268 people, put fear in the minds of the people again. This appears to have worked to the advantage of the Rajapaksa family in upstaging its rivals in politics.
Notably, the present president Sirisena shied away from contesting the polls this time mainly because of the people’s anger against him as also against the rest of the establishment in their failure to avert the bomb blasts. Administrative carelessness was evident in the incidents, as the officials in Sri Lanka did not take a serious note of an alert that Indian intelligence agencies sent to it days before the blasts about a Pakistan-based terror outfit’s plans for staging attacks.
Two aspects need special mention in the context of the return of the Rajapaksas to power. One, the Tamil Tigers who were almost finished off might still be around and the Tamil population will face a more aggressive governance system from Colombo. Two, the Rajapaksas are close friends of China and Pakistan, and this could work against India. The present government of Ranil Wickremasinghe was adopting a friendly attitude to India.
It appears Premadasa won support from Tamils as also Muslims – the two minority groups there – while there was overwhelming support from the majority Sinhalas for Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Since the pain of the Easter Sunday bombings got reflected in the presidential polls, a consolidation of Sinhalas in favour of Rajapaksa was only natural.