Clearly, the ruling BJP is taking quite a few hits, demonstrating that it is not unassailable. If civic elections in Karnataka showed the party being outwitted by the Congress party, a similar scenario unfolded in Rajasthan on Tuesday when results of urban local body polls gave the ruling Congress there the upper hand. These set-backs should be seen in the backdrop of the uninspiring performance of the BJP in Maharashtra and Haryana assembly polls a month ago.
In both the states, the party could not win a majority, and needed support of other parties to try and form governments. In Haryana, chief minister Manoharlal Khattar immediately turned around and saved the situation by taking help from a new pro-Jat party to form an alliance government. In Maharashtra, BJP chief minister Devendra Fadnavis failed to form a government, and quit for good – a personal set-back to him, as also the BJP. The last is yet to be heard about ministry formation by the contending sides, but the BJP has faced a major embarrassment there. These, even as the Lok Sabha poll results went hugely in favour of the party in Haryana, Maharashtra and Karnataka, besides most other northern Indian states.
Two assembly polls are due soon, namely in Jharkhand and New Delhi. Nothing goes to show the BJP will have a cakewalk in Jharkhand. The undoings of Arvind Kejriwal as AAP chief minister in Delhi might, to an extent, work to the advantage of the BJP, or even the Congress. The last word lies with the voter anyway.
From the recent election results, overall, it could be advantage Sonia Gandhi, who now returned to lead the Congress from the front as its working president, while Rahul Gandhi is neither here nor there, after scripting failure in the LS polls.
A problem with the BJP is that it is looking up to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to boost its electoral chances even in state elections, and this will be its undoing. The Indian electorate has acquired a sense of maturity over the years – thanks to the visual media – that they know the difference between one election and another. Modi, like a magician, performed trapeze acts like Balakot, and acted firmly in Kashmir even as his government failed in keeping up the pace of economic growth. This saved his image. No matching performance came from the BJP chief ministers in any state in ways to impress the electorate, and hence the poor shows.