By Gyan Pathak
India has been implementing targeted lockdown in place of general lockdown since June 1, 2020. More stringent measures are being put in place in the containment zones. However, about half of the three lakh cases of infections were added during the targeted lockdown period. It necessitates rethinking even about the present targeted COVID-19 response and rectify the mistakes in its implementation, otherwise our medical facilities will soon be overwhelmed and the situation will go out of our control.
The implementation of the new targeted strategy of lockdown and unlocking is a proof in itself that the earlier strategy of general lockdown between March 24 and May 31 was a grave mistake. There is no doubt that targeted response is a better strategy, in terms of resource mobilization, targeted handling of cases, and avoidance of other humanitarian crises caused by the disease and the economic crises brought out by the general lockdown or all human activities, except the ‘essentials’ as defined by the government. Despite this better strategy, if the number of cases is increasing day by day, it’s a matter of serious concern. We must therefore find out where we have gone wrong. This exercise is unavoidable because India has already become the fourth worst hit country in the world, and the trend of infection indicates that the country may become the second worst hit nation by the first week of July, only after the United States, if we fail to contain the outbreak now.
In this situation, the latest OECD economic outlook report is worth attention of the government of India and all the stakeholders. It said that there are two possible scenarios for India, the first one-hit scenario, and the second is second-hit scenario. The report has emphasized that both the scenarios are possible. In the first scenario, it is presumed that country will be able to avoid acute crisis after 10 weeks of general lockdown and targeted lockdown thereafter. The report then goes on presuming the second-hit scenario with a second wave of outbreak of the disease during autumn (October to December) this year. Since the second wave of outbreak is being reported even from the countries that have been by and large successful in containing the first wave of the outbreak, the threat of the second wave of outbreak in India seems to be real, even if we succeed in containing the outbreak now. Therefore, we need to plan our strategy keeping the risk of second-hit scenario in view.
Thus, India needs a two-pronged strategy, one for the current one-hit scenario, and the second for second-hit scenario. Mishandling of the situation now, as we have seen during the general lockdown period, will be too costly to bear, both in terms of medical consequences and the economic crises arising out of it. For example, if the present trend of infection continues, there will be around eight lakh cases of infection with 24,000 deaths. The Government of NCT Delhi has said that by the end of the next month Delhi will have 5.50 lakh cases, and the state will require 80,000 hospital beds.
It may be mentioned here that Delhi had only 6000 beds by the last week of May, which the state wants to increase to 20,000 by June 20. The huge gap between the available medical facilities and the requirement is accentuated by the severe shortfall of doctors and nurses. Shortage of testing kits, ventilators, medicines, and so on are among additional challenges meet. The examples of economic consequences include the worst case of overthrowing millions of people in abject poverty, ie, living at less than $1.90 per day. According to World Poverty Clock total number of people living is extreme poverty is over 41 million. According to the World Bank’s latest global poverty estimates, COVID-19 could push 71 million people in into extreme poverty in under baseline scenario, and 100 million under downside scenario in 2020. Almost half of the projected new poor will be in South Asia, and India’s share will be around 70 per cent. Under the baseline scenario, COVID-19 could generate 176 million additional poor at $3.20 and 177 million additional poor at $5.50 globally. It is an humble reminder that Prime Minister Modi had promised eradication of poverty by 2022, as part of his ‘New India’ agenda among others.
Indian economy and finance had been worsening even in the pre-COVID-19 period, and at the time of announcement of lockdown it was performing worst in the decade, and unemployment was 45 years high. Lockdown was hurriedly conceived idea without any preparation even as the first case in India was detected in January end. Providing medical facilities was the only answer, but government was too slow on this account. Finally, general lockdown was announced, which created irreparable harm to well-being. Economic activities were completely stopped. About 300 migrant labours died of hunger or in accidents while returning to their homes without any transport facilities. Even after the hardship, corona outbreak could not be contained. The whole strategy was a mistake and above all the situation was mishandled.
The economic package of Rs 20 lakh crore to revive the economy was announced on May 12. One month has since past. The total economic package was turned out to be at Rs 20.97 lakh crore, but it is proving not so effective. Only about Rs 2 lakh crore is being channelized as support in cash and kind to the distressed common people. The rest of the amount are intended for business, industries, and tax payers, as loans, rebates, or other support. It is not likely to improve consumption and demand, and therefore work only as avoidance of bankruptcy, nothing more. Many of them will be permanently closed, and many will at best take the loans to pay rent, taxes, and other liabilities. Even after unlocking the economy, business, industries, and banks will find themselves in great difficulty in financing their day to day needs. The Union and the state governments also are facing the acute problems arising out of revenue deficit.
Under the new scenario of COVID-19 infection, targeted response to the disease and the economic crises needs to be intensified, first to avoid further worsening the situation, and secondly to keep the risk of second wave of infection anytime after September at abeyance. India has always suffered the mistakes committed by its rulers, but cannot afford now without its ruin. (IPA Service)