By Sagarneel Sinha
With the curtain closing down on the Bihar elections, the focus now shifts to the four states — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam — which are expected to go to polls together by April and May next year. In the north-eastern region, Assam is politically the most significant state — which alone has 14 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats of the region. In the 2016 assembly elections, BJP emerged as the single largest party in the state for the first time and formed the government with the help of its allies — Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF).
Assam was always considered a stronghold of the Congress party — which has won 10 assembly elections out of 14. Although it faced electoral defeats in 1978, 1985 and 1996, the grand old party was successful in winning back in the next elections. In assembly elections, the party, as of now, hasn’t faced defeat consecutively. In 2021 elections too, the aim of Congress is to keep its past record intact.
This time, however, the political situation is completely different. The Congress party nationally doesn’t command the appeal that it used to. Its electoral fortunes are at an all time low. In Assam too, the situation of the party isn’t that very well — although it has been able to regain its Muslim vote bank successfully from the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), mostly regarded as a Muslim based party — which is led by Dhubri Lok Sabha MP Badhruddin Ajmal. Notably, the state Congress leadership has already taken the decision to ally with AIUDF. The proposed alliance is waiting for the approval of Congress president Sonia Gandhi.
The victory of BJP in 2016 assembly elections was an “aberration” — this is what Congress wants to desperately prove. For that, it has to win the upcoming elections. It would also strengthen the party in the north-eastern region — where presently it has no governments. After conquering Assam, the BJP has successfully penetrated in the entire region — and the governments in all the eight north-eastern states are ruled by BJP or by regional parties that support the NDA at the national level.
The state Congress leadership is already in an active mood to bring all the anti-BJP forces in the state under a single umbrella. Already, the Congress has received positive responses from the AIUDF and the Left parties. As of now, if everything goes well, the alliance with the AIUDF is certain. This would prevent the division of Muslim votes. Muslims are 34% of the state’s population. Particularly, AIUDF is more eager to ally with the Congress — as in recent times Ajmal’s party has witnessed shrinking of its base due to the shift of a section of Muslim votes towards the grand old party.
A section of the Congress party is opposed to the alliance with AIUDF — which is viewed by the most Assamese and the tribals as a party representing the interests of the illegal Muslim immigrants. It is seen as a communal party — a major reason for worry for a section of Congress leaders who believe that it may result in backlash of the majority Hindu community and in that scenario, BJP will be the major beneficiary.
But the Congress can’t ignore AIUDF — as it will split the Muslim votes. The grand old party won’t take the risk learning from the Bihar election results where the All India Maslis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) led by Hyderabad Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi, another Muslim based party, took away the Muslim votes in the Muslim populated Seemanchal region of the state by winning 5 seats — harming the interests of the Mahagatbandhan comprising of RJD, Congress, CPIML(L), CPI and CPI(M). This division of Muslim votes was one of the key reasons for defeat of the Mahagatbandhan by the NDA alliance in Bihar. But the Congress knows that Assam isn’t Bihar — so it is keen to stitch the alliance with the AIUDF by invoking the anti-CAA political views, as AIUDF too is against the Citizenship Amendment Act, 2019.
But the two new regional parties — Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal — as of now have shown no interest in joining the Congress led anti-BJP alliance. If these parties won’t join the alliance, BJP would be the main beneficiary. Already the two regional parties have decided to contest together. They would definitely take away a chunk of the anti-BJP votes — which the Congress is eyeing.
Also the Left’s influence in Assam has declined considerably. The situation of the Left in Assam isn’t similar to that of Bihar — where it contributed to Mahagatbandhan’s seat share by winning 16 seats. In the last 2015 Bihar assembly elections, despite the Left fighting alone, CPI(ML)(L), the largest left party in the state, won 3 seats. But in Assam, this isn’t the case. During the last 2016 assembly polls, the Left parties performed poorly. CPI(M), the largest left party of Assam, even came third in the Sorbhog seat, the traditional stronghold of the party. The current situation of the other Left parties — CPI, CPI(ML)(L) and RCPI — is worse.
The Congress alliance with the Left will come handy to the grand old party only in a few seats — if the contest is too close in those seats. Congress, as of now, has a huge challenge in the state — if it has to defeat the BJP. It has to convince the majority Hindu community in the wake of its alliance with the AIUDF and also to bring all the anti-BJP forces under its umbrella — for that it has to persuade the AJP and the Raijor Dal. (IPA Service)