Uttarakhand saw a change of chief minister at the eleventh hour. BJP is changing Trivendra Singh Rawat at a time when he has completed four years in power and the state is set for assembly polls in February 2022. Admittedly, the performance of Rawat was not extra-ordinary by any definition. He has also faced criticism over his government’s failure, among other things, to handle a serious flood situation. Internal fights within the BJP state unit has evidently led to the present situation.
Changing a chief minister at the fag end of a government’s term is to court more trouble for whichever party runs that state. The BJP’s problem is that most of its chief ministers are faceless wonders, drawing their sustenance from the Modi-Shah duo in Delhi. Lack of strong leadership at the state levels is generally sought to be made up with behind-the-scene support from the RSS network. The result is that every time an assembly election comes, the BJP is at a disadvantage. This was evident in Maharashtra where Devendra Fadnavis held the reins and yet failed to create a mark for himself. So too with Haryana where Manoharlal Khattar failed to muster a majority for the party in the last assembly polls and managed to retain power with a newly formed regional entity. Madhya Pradesh has a strong CM face for the BJP. For the entire south, except for Karnataka where strongman Yeddiyurappa is in command, the BJP does not have strong leadership. The messages from both Modi and Shah fail to reach the masses due also to language constraints in the south. The result is that the saffron party fails to grow in the South as also Odisha.
In West Bengal too, despite hard work, the BJP is still not reaching anywhere. In Assam, the coming assembly polls will show whether the BJP manages to stay in power.
It is here that the Congress has an advantage. It has strong leaders in most states, though the effect is nullified by the weak leadership at the helm in the post-Sonia Gandhi period. Still, the Congress can look for a revival of its fortunes in state after state for the simple reason that the BJP failed to build strong leaderships at regional levels. In the present round of assembly polls too, the Congress is likely to share power in Tamil Nadu. Kerala also might see a return of the Congress-led UDF. In Assam too, with the new-found association with a regional party, the Congress has some hope.