GUWAHATI, April 8:: Amid contradictory claims by the incumbent alliance and the Opposition of bagging “majority seats” in the Assam Assembly elections, political analysts are of the view that in the “highly uncertain and rather complex” scenario, it will be the “silent voters”, primarily comprising the young electorate, which will eventually decide the outcome of the polls.
After weeks of high-voltage campaigns by parties and candidates, the three-phase polls came to an end on Tuesday evening. But while experts decoding the trends of the election have still not been able to forecast a clear winner, the revised “seat targets” post polls suggest that things are getting apparently even and unpredictable.
BJP’s poll strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma claims that the “Mitrajot” will bag 87 out of the 126 seats, and not the 100-plus seats as claimed earlier.
Some leaders in the “Mahajot” such as Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) chief, Hagrama Mohilary and Anchalik Gana Morcha president, Ajit Bhuyan on the other hand, are now claiming 70-plus seats.
The “third front” – comprising the Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal, however, are maintaining a passive stance, even as they could bag a seat here and there.
Speaking to The Shillong Times on Thursday, Dr Pranjit Hazarika, former head of political science, Tezpur College, said that given the highly uncertain scenario, a clear winner could not be predicted before May 2, the day when the votes will be counted, putting all speculations to rest.
“It will be important as to how the silent voters (primarily young voters in the age group of 18 to 30), some of who may be apolitical and hence rely on conscience voting, had perceived the achievements of the incumbent government,” Dr Hazarika said.
The young electorate (below 30 years) comprised about 55 lakh voters in the polls with about 4.8 lakh voters in the 18 to 19 years age group.
“The polls registered a healthy turnout of over 82 percent, which indicates that people have taken active part in the democratic process. So it will be interesting to see how these young voters had weighed the anti-incumbency factor on one hand and the development agenda of the BJP government, backed by a slew of welfare schemes, on the other,” he said.
“Besides, there are sections that have been attracted to the newly-formed regional front, Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal. So, while the regional parties emerged late to make a meaningful impact, they could be favoured in a few constituencies despite the loss of credibility in view of an eleventh-hour flip-flop, having fielded candidates against each other in the same constituency,” he said.
On the BJP-led alliance claiming 40 seats in the first phase polls, but the “ground reports” claiming otherwise, Dr Hazarika said the “post poll uncertainty regarding the outcome has basically emerged from reports of the “50-50 chances in some constituencies” in Upper Assam and north bank.”
Sharing his thoughts, city-based political analyst Sushanta Talukdar, in the same vein said, a “clear picture was yet to emerge and a silent mandate by young voters, in the wake of an undercurrent against the Citizenship Amendment Act, unemployment and price rise, will be the deciding factor amid contradictory claims of the alliances”.
“The poll arithmetic might work against the ruling BJP alliance and if the transfer of votes between the Opposition alliance partners takes place in some seats, then the Grand Alliance could very well be in the game. Here, if the BJP-led alliance, as the ground reports suggest, is restricted to below 30 seats in the first phase (a game changing phase), the Mitrajot will be impacted adversely. Also, Mahajot might have gained some of its lost ground in some tea garden areas as well,” Talukdar said.
“Then again, the Ajmal factor might have played its role in the second and third phases (be it in Barak Valley, where the Mahajot will reportedly bagged at least 10 of the 15 seats or in the minority-dominated seats of lower and western Assam). Simultaneously, if the regional parties clinch a few seats, riding on the young vote base, the Mahajot will certainly benefit,” he opined.
“All said and done, given the unpredictability of the 2021 polls unlike in 2016, it will also be important to see (in the event of a fractured mandate) how the alliances succeed in getting the requisite numbers through post poll maneuvering,” he added.