With the departure of the Americans from its Bagram Air Base from July 1, the final phase of complete withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan has begun. The last of the US and NATO soldiers would leave the landlocked nation by September, leaving the troubled region virtually at the mercy of the Taliban. The militant Islamic group that indulged in massive bloodletting for three decades may now have the last laugh and the fall of the Afghan government led by President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul is a strong possibility.
Notably, Americans landed there and toppled the Taliban regime soon after the Al Qaeda attacks on WTC Twin Towers and Pentagon 20 years ago, which changed the course of global history and set the US firmly against Islamic fundamentalists. The US military presence helped usher in a minimal idea of democracy there. India, a close Afghan ally gave this process eminent backing. The first such government led by Hamid Karzai could not rein in the Taliban as also the warlords, and they continued to call the shots over much of the mountainous nation known for its poppy cultivation and sway of drug cartels.
The withdrawal of a substantial part of the US forces by then President George Bush Junior within a matter of two years only complicated matters. This was for reaching the US forces to Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Donald Trump as president engaged in talks with the Taliban and in 2020 signed a full withdrawal plan for this year, which was later endorsed by President Joe Biden.
As the Taliban is split into two strong groups, one drawing support from Pakistan, how things will shape up there after full withdrawal of the US-NATO troops is unclear. India has not formally entered into talks with Taliban, but back channel discussions are currently under way. India has major investments in the economic sphere in Afghanistan by way of helping it emerge as a progressive nation. It had also built and donated the Parliament House.
Protecting Indian interests there from militant offensives is by itself a herculean task. Pakistan, on the other hand, is working hard to subdue India and get more involved in Afghan affairs. President Ashraf Ghani who took a stand favourable to Pakistan at the start of his first term later effected a course correction. It is important for India to re-strategize its positioning vis-à-vis Taliban. Else, worse, the Kashmiri militants could try and gain backing from sections of the Afghan militants with encouragement from Pakistan.