Afghanistan has gone the Taliban way again; but not quite yet. Discussions continued between the Islamic fundamentalists and representatives of the political establishment under US mediation. A period of chaos and confusion is unfolding. India has reasons to be wary but, as its representative at the UN said, there are both challenges and opportunities as a new government takes charge. India is stressing that the new regime should not allow terrorists from Pakistan as also the others like the ISI and Al Qaeda to make their bases out of Afghanistan.
Curiously, the Americans are out, and yet not out. They are mindful of a Chinese over-reach there and also attempts to again make the nation a theatre of terror. As of now, other than the militia, the Taliban has no back-up to resist an aggression from outside. Its namesake military that had once been ranked a poor 75-th in the world in terms of might, has ceased to exist. The armed forces have disintegrated and made off with arms, ammunition and equipment. Under these circumstances, any government in future can collapse the way it happened in December 2001. To be sure, Americans have strategically anchored themselves on the control towers of Kabul’s airport in the guise of evacuations. This is tantamount to the US holding a gun to the forehead of the Taliban to ensure, among other things, that the power is transferred to someone that is acceptable to the Americans as well.
Granted that none of those who had conquered Afghanistan in the past could hold on there, the fact is also that the US called much of the shots there for the past 20 years. The famished nation will not have the resources to raise a strong military in the near future. This means that foreign players will remain active. India’s role in Afghanistan, even as New Delhi took care of its strategic interests there, was constructive in nature and the Taliban too appreciated this. A Taliban regime cannot remain in isolation for long. It would require building bridges here or there. China has already extended an olive branch. Pakistan is too keen on encouraging the Taliban. Indian support depends on how the new regime functions. The options are many for the regime. In the interim, the Taliban can be counted on to play havoc in multiple ways, mainly in respect of human rights violations and women’s freedom. It is here that the UN agencies would need to keep a close watch and intervene.