GUWAHATI, Sept 2: Amid significant developments in Assam’s political milieu, with Opposition Congress looking to make up for lost ground, having snapped ties with key Mahajot ally, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and exploring “like-minded” partners, political analysts here are sceptical of the strategy working right for the grand old party in the ensuing Assembly by-polls.
As of now, six Assembly seats are going to the by-polls after about six months, with three constituencies – Mariani, Majuli and Thowra – located in Upper Assam, two – Tamulpur and Gossaigaon – in Bodoland Territorial Region and one – Bhawanipur – in western Assam.
Speaking to The Shillong Times on Thursday, Dr Pranjit Hazarika, former head of political science, Tezpur College, said the political equations have changed somewhat after Congress snapped ties with AIUDF recently and subsequently “started deliberations” with Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi in New Delhi.
“However, if at all an understanding is stitched between Congress and Raijor Dal ahead of the bypolls, it is doubtful whether Congress can gain politically from it. There are primarily two reasons for it – firstly, the political base of Raijor Dal in the vacant seats is not very strong, and secondly, Akhil’s stance has been inconsistent and his statements opposed by some Congress spokespersons,” Dr Hazarika said.
“So such inconsistency and instability on the part of the Raijor Dal chief can affect Congress adversely in the long run,” he opined.
It may be mentioned that three of the by poll seats had sitting MLAs who have now left their respective (Opposition) parties to join the ruling BJP – with a common aim to uplift their constituencies by being in the party in power.
The political analyst further said Congress would be better off contesting the by-polls alone.
“That way, they can put up a strong and stable face, particularly after having broken ties with AIUDF,” Dr Hazarika said, adding, “Now it remains to be seen what choice Congress makes and what stand it eventually takes.”
As it is, regional parties such as Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad have backed an “anti-BJP alliance minus AIUDF” with a common candidate to contest the bypoll seats.
“The idea of a common candidate is not pragmatic. Every party in the alliance will try to put up their candidate for that slot. There will be hue and cry, similar to the one that the Mahajot saw prior to the Assembly polls earlier this year,” he said.
City-based political analyst Sushanta Talukdar, while sharing his thoughts, said the traditional supporters of the Congress, particularly in Upper Assam, never favoured the party’s pre-poll alliance with AIUDF.
“There is a narrative that AIUDF, formed post the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act is not pro-indigenous, having only a strong base in areas with a dominant, Bengali Muslim population (in lower Assam). Besides, there was opposition (to the AIUDF alliance) within the party itself,” Talukdar said.
“Now, Congress, having witnessed substantial erosion of its bases post polls, is looking at regaining lost ground, particularly in Upper Assam. In regard to the theory of common candidates, if at all there is a Congress pact with regional parties, the chemistry matters more…whether the people approve or disapprove the equation,” he said.
“In general, common candidates in the Opposition camp help in reducing the split in the Opposition vote. However, this is not mid-term polls…the time gap between the Assembly polls, (when the mandate was in favour of the BJP-led alliance) and the by-polls, is just a matter of some months….voters generally favour the parties in the ruling alliance…,” Talukdar said.
“All said and done, unless there is an extreme mandate, which might say something else…chances of the mandate going against the ruling party in the by-polls are remote,” he said.