With curtains up on the assembly elections in five states, the voter mood is upbeat. Yet, an air of uncertainty hangs over the way the results would emerge by March 10, the day when the counting of votes in UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa takes place in one sweet go. No political party is sure of winning any of these states. As for the central theatre of action, Uttar Pradesh, the Congress party has already lost the race; the fight will be between the ruling BJP and main Opposition, the SP. Akhilesh Yadav is set to give a tough fight to the BJP and, with Muslim backing, might even upset the BJP applecart. In Punjab, the BJP is already a lost cause while the Congress, after the Amarinder Singh exit from the party weeks ago, is no more a cohesive force. Worse, Charanjit Singh Channi as chief minister is not a guarantee to electoral success for the Congress. Goa was already a tough turf for the BJP after the demise of Manohar Parrikar. It oscillates between different political influences; and the situation in Manipur too is fluid due to a variety of reasons.
The present round of assembly polls will set the stage for the 2024 parliament polls. If the BJP loses UP, the game is over for the party at the national level too. Regional forces will gain huge clout across the states in their offensives against the saffron force. If the Congress manages to retain Punjab, that will save its face to an extent. The scene in Uttarakhand needs to be closely watched, though the ruling BJP has a shameful track record of having performed a ‘musical chair’ show of three CMs in a year. It showed the discomfiture in the saffron rank and file there.
Chief Election Commissioner Sushil Chandra has advised political parties to concentrate more on online and digital campaigns and avoid crowd formations. He has banned rallies and processions till January 15 and the scenario in the context of the Covid19 would be reviewed and an extension of this deadline is possible. The daily Covid count is already surging past 1.50 lakh in an emerging third wave. While the political parties will adhere to this EC call, they might flout other stipulations of a general nature as they did in the past too. When everyone flouts a call, the EC can only throw its hands up. If the national parties like the BJP and the Congress take a firm decision to abide by the rules, it would work wonders.
