Exit polls predict a comeback of the NPP-BJP plus combine in Meghalaya. But exit polls are largely based on interviewing urban voters. How people vote in the rural outback where development has bypassed them for the last fifty years will determine the fate of the candidates. While money has played a major role this election and laggard MLAs have relied on money power and other inducements to woo voters. Election day was uncharacteristically quiet and lacklustre compared to the noise and fanfare of the past month. The queue at most polling stations indicated a certain lack of interest especially by the male section of the population. The queue for women was much longer at every polling station. Does this mean that women consider voting to be more important in deciding their future? Alternatively, why do young men not queue up to vote? This needs some study to understand voting behaviour in Meghalaya or rather among the tribals. In non-tribal dominated areas men of all age groups were seen crowding outside the polling stations discussing politics and perhaps trying to make sense of which candidates is likely to win from that particular constituency.
The exit polls also reveal that those conducting the surveys do not have a nuanced idea of the popularity enjoyed by parties like the United Democratic Party (UDP) which has been lumped as the “Others.” The UDP will still be a factor when the next government is formed in Meghalaya. Much has been discussed about Nagaland and Meghalaya being Christian majority states and how the BJP has now jumped from getting a toe-hold to getting a foothold in these states. The hard fact is that people are caught between a desire for development and the fear psychosis created around the BJP as the anti-minority Party wanting to establish a homogenous culture, religion and language. In its 5-year partnership with the NPP, a national party with its base in the North East, people did not witness the BJP imposing any of its hard-line stance such as the beef ban or any assault on religious minorities. The BJP in this region seems to rely a lot on the local leadership and their stances. In fact the BJP’s mantra for this region is “Vikas” (development). This is evident from the push for infrastructure which include roads, highways, power and medical educational institutions in states ruled by the Party and using these as models of development that other states can aspire to.
March 2 will reveal whether people have voted for change or whether they prefer to give the same set of leaders a second chance.