Shillong, July 5: According to a report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday, El Nino conditions have emerged in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years. This development sets the stage for a probable rise in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns.
The WMO predicts a 90 percent likelihood of the El Nino event persisting throughout the second half of 2023, with expectations of at least moderate strength. WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas stated that the onset of El Nino significantly raises the chances of breaking temperature records and experiencing more extreme heat across various regions worldwide, both on land and in the ocean.
El Nino, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting around nine to 12 months. It involves the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. However, these occurrences now take place within the context of a climate impacted by human activities.
The WMO highlighted that since February, monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have notably increased. Starting from nearly half a degree Celsius below average in February, they have risen to approximately half a degree Celsius above average in May. By the week centered on June 14, the warm sea surface temperature anomalies continued to intensify, reaching a value of +0.9 degrees Celsius.
Based on both oceanic and atmospheric observations, the collective evidence strongly indicates the presence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific, as stated by the WMO. However, some uncertainty remains due to weak ocean-atmosphere coupling, which is crucial for the amplification and sustainability of El Nino. It is expected to take another month or so to observe a fully established coupling in the tropical Pacific.
The UN agency’s latest update for July, August, and September 2023 suggests that warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will likely lead to widespread above-normal temperatures over land areas in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
Taalas emphasized that the WMO’s declaration of an El Nino serves as a signal to governments worldwide to mobilize preparations aimed at mitigating the impacts on health, ecosystems, and economies.