Los Angeles, Feb 5: Heavily Democratic California might appear an unlikely national battleground, but a string of competitive U.S. House contests is again poised to play a crucial role in determining control of the chamber as Republicans look to maintain their fragile majority in a deeply divided nation. The state that was once home for Republican Presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan has become so solidly Democratic that a GOP presidential candidate hasn’t won a general election in California since the 1980s. Democrats hold every statewide office and dominate the Legislature, while Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans by an overwhelming 2-to-1.
Yet pockets of conservative strength remain, particularly in the Southern California suburbs and the Central Valley farm belt. As in 2022, the most competitive contests are concentrated in Republican-held districts that were carried by then-candidate Joe Biden in 2020 – genuinely competitive territory is diminishing nationally.
Leaders in both parties agree that the outcome in California could be the lever that determines who holds the gavel in 2025, after GOP wins in 2022 helped the party gain control. Currently, the House has 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats and three vacancies.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is among those raising money to help his party retake the House. He’s warning of a “disastrous future” if former President Donald Trump wins the White House and Republicans take charge in the Senate. Under that scenario, Democrats must have the House to have any chance of blocking Trump’s agenda, Newsom warns.
If Democrats win four GOP-held districts in the state “we’re going to flip the House in November,” Newsom wrote in a recent fundraising pitch. “And each of them has a very good chance.” With the state’s Democratic tilt, Republicans hold only 11 of the state’s 52 House seats. In all, about 10 districts appear to be in play statewide and in some cases the primary election could end up resulting in rematches from two years ago. No incumbents appear in imminent peril.
Voting is about to start, with a Monday deadline for counties to mail ballots.
In the emerging fray, fear of the opposition animates the sales pitch. Democrats are warning about Trump’s possible return to Washington, threats to abortion rights and unchecked gun violence. Republicans fault the party that dominates state politics for high taxes, inflation, vexing crime rates and an out-of-control homeless crisis. It’s unknown to what degree the presidential contest will trickle into House races. (AP)
