By Benjamin Lyngdoh
The butterfly effect phenomenon denotes that every action no matter how big or small matters in the wider scheme of things. Every action of the past and present impacts upon and shapes future outcomes. Butterfly effect is a reminder that everything is interconnected. Even a very small action can have huge implications. For instance, X is now an IPS officer and this was possible because of his hard work which was in turn possible because of the dedication of his parents which was in turn possible because of Y who provided them with employment and Y could do that because he himself was working in company Z. It can hence be said that X became an IPS officer because of the existence of Company Z. This is the beauty of butterfly effect! It is like a butterfly flapping its wings over the Indian Ocean which then causes a cyclone over the Bay of Bengal which spilled-over to Bangladesh and far-off Meghalaya. Butterfly effect can be positive or negative. When applied to Meghalaya’s political landscape the butterfly effect that emerges is of great concern.
FOMO syndrome
A positive butterfly effect is good as it results in better outcomes. For example, the concern of all the politicians on the status of generation and distribution of electricity is good. Positive outcomes can be expected from it. The problem is the negative butterfly effect. The wrong actions no matter how small do percolate into gigantic problems. Take the ban on coal mining for instance. Non-compliance is causing ripple effects on the environment, miners’ deaths, image of the state government, etc. Negative butterfly effect mostly happens in a situation when everyone wants to be on the winning side. This is commonly known as fear of missing out (FOMO) syndrome which has seeped deep into Meghalaya’s politics. Every politician and party wants to be on the ruling side. Many do not see any value in Opposition politics. That way the politicians enter politics for power and authority. There is less inclination towards the inherent nature of politics which is to serve the people. The FOMO syndrome of the politicians in turn influences the decisions of party workers. In recent times many party workers of other parties have jumped ship to NPP. Although flawed, the narrative of the NPP that you have to be in the ruling side to get development is working. That way the Opposition is weakened not only in the assembly but also at the grassroots. The butterfly effect of a weak opposition is that MDA 2.0 has too much of bargaining power and a free pass on all matters.
Votes for money
Before the MLA election, 2023 there was a lot of discussion about clean politics spearheaded by the Voice of Peoples’ Party (VPP). Beyond VPP, there were also vote banks of other political parties who narrated on the need for clean politics. But, it will be fresh in the memories of many that when voting day approached all talk of clean politics became futile. There are two things to learn from the episode. Firstly, the effort and action towards clean politics has to be consistent and not talked about only when election time arrives. Secondly, clean politics is not only about politicians and governance, it is also about voters. In fact, it concerns the voters exclusively. There can be no clean politics without clean voters. As long as voters continue to cast their votes in return for money nothing will change. In many poll platforms politicians are found to brag openly about giving money to the voters. This is then justified for non-performance of the politician and even financial misappropriation. Instead of this being a huge red flag for the voters they in fact laugh and clap about it. If voters are not awakened then they would not have the moral authority to demand performance and development from their political representatives. The butterfly effect of votes for money is that the voters become indifferent to the issues of corruption, bribery, nepotism, environmental degradation, etc. The rich become richer and vice-versa. Then a mind-set is created that for anything good to happen, one must have political connections.
Just a feel good factor
The US$ 10 billion economy talk is in danger of becoming just a feel-good factor. It seems more evident that MDA 2.0 is copying the central government’s NDA handbook of marketing and advertisement by using fancy words and fancy statements. The US$ 10 billion economy simply means the doubling of the state GDP to around Rs. 80,000 crores by the year 2027-28 as against the base year 2022-23 when the state GDP was around Rs. 40,000 crores. The state has been growing at the rate of 11% for the last two years. Now, to double the state GDP by 2027-28 Meghalaya’s economy needs to grow at the rate of 16% for the next four years. Reaching 16% growth per year is possible and as such the state GDP will double. However, it is to be factored that the doubling would be at current prices. This means that inflation plays a huge role in the doubling. This also means that the majority will not benefit from the doubling. It would be better to measure growth in terms of constant prices by using 2022-23 as the base. Using constant prices is a convention for measuring GDP. This would mean that growth has occurred because of the increase in production of goods and services and not inflation. This in reality reflects the livelihoods of people accurately. That way the state GDP by 2027-28 would be around Rs. 64,000 crores in real terms at 9% growth rate. This has better substance and is truthfully indicative of Meghalaya’s real progress.
Doing the right thing
Thus far Meghalaya’s political butterfly effect is mostly negative. MDA 2.0 has mostly concentrated on doing things right. For example, procrastinating on checking illegal mining and transportation, covering details of alleged miners’ death, not dealing swiftly with illegal coke plants, etc., are cases in point of managing issues by doing things right. On the contrary, doing the right thing would entail acting fairly and promptly on such issues. Again, the salary given to political appointees can be saved and spent on more productive interventions like the up-coming state university. A good state university would be a wondrous butterfly effect on the lives of many students and ultimately on their livelihoods and Meghalaya’s development. For instance, students who thus far have been denied higher studies due to shortages of seats and/or high fees from private institutions can now avail of a new opportunity to shape their careers. What is needed is to do the small things right. Like in this case, putting money into the right places.
In the end the butterfly effect works most dangerously in politics. This is because politics decides the lives and livelihoods of the people. Legislations, policy formulation and implementation, etc are all political exercises. As such, the only way to ensure progress and growth is to have the right set of politicians by awakened voters.
(The writer teaches at NEHU; email: [email protected])