PM Modi leaves India-us ties at a Moscow crossroad
By Sushil Kutty
BJP leader Narendra Modi in his first term as NDA Prime Minister of India shouldn’t have forgotten how to kowtow, and who to kowtow to. Why he went to Russia before kowtowing to the United States is a mistake. Why he went and hugged Russian President Vladimir Putin is a bigger mistake. Modi’s hugging habit is working against India’s interests. Also, Modi might have forgotten his Chanakya, but the Americans have their Sun Tzu correct: An enemy’s friend is an enemy.
With relations strained, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval had a telephonic talk with US counterpart Jake Sullivan on July 12. They discussed a range of issues in the growing shadow of Modi and Putin clinched in a bear-hug. Jake and Ajit found the strain unbearable is the verdict of foreign policy wonks. The high-level engagements under the Quad framework would be impacted.
Truth is, Prime Minister Modi has been under the weather ever since his third shot at becoming third-time BJP Prime Minister of India was rudely cut short by a surging opposition. NSAs Jake and Ajit are now trying to salvage whatever is left of cordial ties. A sterile MEA readout, smelling of diplomatic anaesthesia, is available: “The NSAs agreed to work closely to further advance India-US relations, which are built on shared values and common strategic and security interests,” the readout said, stressing on the need to address global challenges to peace and security, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi had put at risk with his gay abandon with President Putin! There is concern that the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership is more or less dead.
The fact is, the massive strain is impinging India-US ties. The fault lies squarely on India, with Modi trying to make a triangle of the binary! Did Modi underestimate the United States? It is still a unipolar world with the United States the sole superpower. Modi in his first term as NDA Prime Minister appears to have forgotten the cardinal points that govern US ties with lesser nations.
The thought that he’s “Vishwaguru” seems to have gotten to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s head. He wants to single-handedly bring peace between Putin and Zelensky. The Nobel Peace Prize is waiting. But with the US sidelined, will Modi ever get to hold his dream? Also, Narendra Modi may or may not last in the high office even till November of this year when the United States will elect its next President.
Right now, the Biden administration has had enough of the ‘Hugging-Modi’ who will regret he isn’t the ‘Smiling Buddha’. NSA Jake Sullivan hinted at this when he said China and not Russia was the better bet for India after Modi spoke of “Yuddha” and “Buddha” and how the twain shall never meet as long as he was around.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi starts speaking in poorly conceived riddles is when India should start worrying. The way things have panned out, Moscow has gotten its angle right, but the United States is aghast at how Modi is angling for global attention at the cost of US friendship. The obtuse angle Modi has taken vis a vis the United States is sure-shot hara-kiri.
After Modi’s return from the Russia-Vienna tour, the realization has struck New Delhi that Modi in his first term as NDA Prime Minister has forgotten all that he learned in his two terms as BJP Prime Minister. The tremendous strain on India-United States relations is the talk of the US town. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow must be rated highly disastrous for India-US ties by any reckoning.
For sure, NDA Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not get an invitation to address the US Congress again unless, perhaps, if Donald Trump makes himself a fixture in the White House with Melania and Barron Trump for four more years. Jake Sullivan and Ajit Doval have the hard job to correct the strained bilateral ties again, but with Prime Minister Narendra Modi bent on winning the Nobel Peace Prize, chances are India-US ties will not be any better than they are today.
NSAs Jake Sullivan and Ajit Doval have agreed to “work closely” and advance bilateral ties including addressing matters related to the Quad. There is the upcoming Quad Foreign Ministers meeting and then a summit of the Quad leaders to be held later this year. It is at such meets that Prime Minister Narendra Modi revels in. If the Quad disintegrates, Prime Minister Modi will lose the will to live!
The United States is not humoured. Under the diplomatic camouflage, the Americans are really pissed off. India’s ties with Russia go back to the Soviet-era and the US administration isn’t happy Modi is taking them to greater heights. Modi has been warned to hold back the raging testosterone, but who is listening?
Before the Modi-Putin hug, there was the “conversation” between US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra. Also, State Department officials had been talking with India’s acting Ambassador to the United States. And US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti cautioned the NDA government of Modi that the United States should not be “taken for granted”. Jake Sullivan mentioned India’s “bad bet” on Russia, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi had an ear only for the Russian! The global diplomatic community is missing something. Modi is no ‘Vishwaguru’! He hardly understands the importance of global parleys with everyone taken into confidence. (IPA Service)