Bilateral relations in the geopolitical region mainly encompassing the Indian subcontinent has remained fluid for a long time. With the change of government in Bangladesh a week ago, the scenario looks more unpredictable. The US was often accused of meddling in the internal affairs of countries across Asia though China remained impregnable. The events in Bangladesh leading up to the sudden exit of Sheikh Hasina from power took place with stunning speed. Curiously, the anti-government protests built more strength even after the Supreme Court intervened and mostly suspended the reservations system. The student leaders insisted that they still wanted Hasina out. It is unclear yet as to which all forces worked from behind the scenes for her ouster. The installation of an apolitical figure, Mohammad Yunus, to head the interim government and hold fresh elections in due course of time, is now raising suspicions that the US played a role in this regime change. Sheikh Hasina has gone on record to suspect as much in clear terms and said her refusal to concede certain demands of the Americans led to her ouster. She might as well be seeking to send out a message that her keenness to uphold national interests caused her this misery. Once the interim government starts taking decisions, its character would become clear as well. Its attitude to New Delhi, Pakistan, China and the US would be closely watched. It is very unlikely that Yunus and the army would allow any space for Pakistan to hold forth in Bangladesh.
China apparently could not meddle in the affairs of Bangladesh though some funding for the student uprising suspectedly came through Chinese business interests. Put together, China and Pakistan could be a lethal mix. That was the kind of scenario that unfolded in the Maldives, much to the discomfiture of India. But its president Mohamed Muizzu seemed to have learnt a lesson or two from his infatuation with Beijing and is now in a mood to strengthen bilateral ties with India. So too with Sri Lanka, which had a season of intense engagement with China and ended up in a debt trap with Beijing, as has happened to Maldives too later. Colombo understands that Sri Lanka’s relations with India, in the post-LTTE phase, must grow. Pakistan can be depended on to continue its close relations with China, as this suits both sides in their engagements against India. Nepal too had seemed to play into the Chinese hands in recent times. The frequent change of governments in Kathmandu leads to policy shifts too. As of now, Nepal is keen on building further on its India ties. Afghanistan, released from US controls, is neither here nor there. The interplay of regional powers and global interests in the subcontinent is bound to continue.
