What happens to the political landscape if Mukul Sangma returns to Cong fold?

TURA, Dec 2: Following the resounding victory of the NPP’s Mehtab Chandee A Sangma in the recently concluded Gambegre by-election, there has been a pall of gloom in the Congress and Trinamool camps. While no one really wants to read too much into the victory, political pundits from both parties are aware of what is to come if the two parties continue to be at loggerheads in the 2028 elections.
Speculation has been rife that former chief minister and TMC leader, Mukul Sangma may once again return to the Congress fold with even MPCC president, Vincent Pala confirming that the two were in touch. He however added that a decision would have to be taken by the AICC on whether the move will come to fruition.
TMC, as has been widely known, has been finding the going extremely tough in trying to convince voters that they are the real deal despite Mukul and his group sparing no effort in trying to connect with people. What Mukul’s move did in 2022 not only weakened the Congress but also provided the NPP a sizable breathing space in its efforts at seeking re-election. In hindsight, they did not need to do much with Congress votes that would have gone differently had the TMC not appeared on the scene.
Taking a look at the 2023 election, even a layman could point out the fact that the NPP’s resounding victory with 18 seats (now 19) was as much due to their own efforts but also due to largesse shown by the opposition in cancelling out each other.
In Gambegre too, a similar trend was witnessed with the TMC and Congress together taking 15,779 votes while the winner, NPP secured 12,678 votes.
Let’s take a look at some seats where the TMC and Congress actually cut each other out to allow the NPP to win in the 2023 election.
In Bajengdoba, the combined total of the TMC–Congress was 15,779 while NPP won the seat with 9,900 votes. In Kharkutta the TMC–Congress combine received 17,642 votes and would have edged out the NPP by a close margin (17,426). In Resubelpara, the same was repeated with 12,547 votes for the TMC–Congress while NPP won with 10,948 votes.
In Rongara–Siju, the TMC–Congress won a total of 16,249 while NPP took the seat with 11,569 votes. Even in Williamnagar, the combined votes of the TMC and Congress (11,532) could have trumped the NPP which received a total of 10,655 votes.
The patterns are similar in many of the seats in Garo Hills as well as in the Khasi–Jaintia Hills with the TMC and the Congress actually cutting into their own vote bases and leaving an easy path for the NPP and other parties.
“Mukul’s move to leave the Congress owing to differences with the leadership could not have come at a more inopportune moment for the Congress. It left the party rudderless after 11 MLAs, including seniors, left the party along with him. In fact, even after their move, most that left were still unhappy with the TMC’s functioning mainly due to the interference of I-PAC, which did more damage than good to the candidates of the TMC,” felt a TMC member on condition of anonymity.
The TMC’s meager return of only five seats in the state is testimony that the voters were unhappy with the move. Many were even left dazed and confused on who to vote for despite the NPP in the throes of anti-incumbency.
“The TMC in Garo Hills was seen as an outsider party from West Bengal and was something that was not palatable to voters despite the immense support Mukul Sangma enjoys. Even those seats that they won came with extremely close margins. There has always been a feeling that Congress with Mukul Sangma in it is a force to reckon with, at least in Garo Hills,” felt a resident of Tura, SR Sangma.
The NPP has been able to literally laugh all the way to the bank and even the Gambegre result is testimony to this fact. A divided opposition is always a blessing.
On the other hand, the Congress has been slowly and steadily rebuilding itself from the grassroots and this has shown (Contd on P-10)
What happens to the political…
(Contd from P-3) in the increased popularity of the party since the 2023 elections, especially after Saleng Sangma broke through the hegemony of the PA Sangma family in the Tura MP seat. There was a strong feeling that the Congress would be able to build on the momentum from Saleng’s win.
However, strategic mistakes meant that the party fell behind the TMC and eventual winners, the NPP. Saleng, while not reading too much into the setback, stated that the party would continue its build up for the 2028 elections. Saleng (historically at loggerheads) has also been the principal opposition to Mukul Sangma rejoining the party though political compulsions may ensure a rethink.
Now with speculation that Mukul may once join the Congress, the floodgates may be opened to many that had earlier deserted the Congress to once come back. While that will pose serious challenges, it will also mean the death of the TMC in the state as well as a united opposition for the 2028 elections. That however will remain a speculation unless the former CM and the Congress can actually work out their differences.
“While Khasi-Jaintia Hills may throw up surprises, especially with the immense popularity of the VPP, some seats will also go to the Congress. In Garo Hills, the NPP will continue to be in the ascendency till a united opposition is presented to challenge that hegemony. This is ground reality and it is something everyone on the ground and in leadership is completely aware of,” said a Congress party member without wanting to be named.