By Wanpynshngain Jana
Given the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the result was unexpected. In the Shillong Parliamentary Constituency, the incumbent Congress party lost the seat after being at the helm for over 25 years to a newly formed party. The United Democratic Party (UDP), which has branded itself as the strong regional party of Meghalaya, garnered only 44,563 votes. The National People’s Party (NPP) lost both seats from Shillong and Tura, despite being the party with the most MLAs in the Meghalaya Legislative Assembly. They positioned female candidates from both constituencies. The Voice of the People Party (VPP), in contrast, achieved a surprising victory and won the MP election by a large margin. However, since that episode, several developments have affected the VPP’s public image, including ticket allocation issues and opposition from Adelbert Nongrum, one of its MLAs.
Now, as we approach the 2025 ADC elections, each party will want to win decisively to project their future outlook. Looking at the VPP, which garnered over 5,00,000 votes in the Lok Sabha election—how many of these votes will they retain this time? It seems that many of the votes from people who typically support regional parties like HSPDP and UDP will return to their base. Some might have shifted allegiance to the VPP, but most are likely to return to support their original party or candidate. The prediction is that the VPP will likely win 6-7 seats. The UDP is fielding strong candidates and is not taking this election lightly. They are fielding current MLAs such as Pius Marwein, Synshar Kupar Roy Thabah, and Matthew B Kurbah, and they have a strong chance to win more than 6-7 seats. With 12 MLAs, the candidates in other constituencies are also garnering support from their respective MLAs.
Although the NPP won 26 seats in 2023, changes in the same year saw two PDF MLAs join their camp. Later in 2024, the NPP convinced three more Congress MLAs to switch allegiance and join them. Leading up to the 2024 MP election, many prominent Congress leaders, such as Rona Khymdeit (ex-MDC), Batskhem Marbaniang (Sitting MDC), and Carness Sohshang (Sitting MDC), jumped ship and joined the NPP. The question arises: will people choose the party or the individual candidates? Similar to the UDP, the NPP is also fielding sitting MLAs as their MDC candidates to boost their chances of winning more seats. The likely prediction for NPP’s seat count is 5-7.
Congress is fielding a comparably stronger list of candidates than in 2023, having followed a thorough process in ticket distribution, although it may not have been perfect. They are fielding both veterans and new faces, such as Jonathan Syiem, Banphira Lang Basaiawmoit, and George C Sunn. However, many constituencies remain competitive, and there is a strong likelihood that Congress will come second in several. Given the recent trend of defections, there is a trust deficit among the public. The predicted number of seats for Congress is 2-3.
HSPDP, the OG of regional parties, has a strong base in the West Khasi Hills, particularly in Mawshynrut and Mawthadraishan. The sitting MLA from Mawthadraishan fielded his sister to contest for the ADC election. If she wins, the constituency will be represented by the brother-sister duo. There are reports that HSPDP could win MDC seats in both constituencies.
On the other hand, we have parties such as BJP, KHNAM, and independent candidates. While their chances might not be as strong, they could still win a few seats here and there. Strong contenders include Lambor Malngiang, Teibor Pathar, PT Sawkmie, Ricky Shullai, and others.
As the counting day approaches, every political party will be on edge, knowing that the results will shape the future of the political landscape.
– Will the VPP be here to stay and, perhaps, one day form the government?
– Will Congress stage a comeback and reaffirm its position as the dominant party it once was?
– Will the NPP impose its dominance and showcase what it means to be the largest party with the most MLAs?
– Will the UDP retain its title as the people’s regional party, or is that image slowly fading?
Time will tell. Let’s wait and see on February 24. In the end, regardless of who wins, let’s remember the true meaning of democracy, as Abraham Lincoln once said: “Government of the people, by the people, for the people.”
At the end of the day, the people should benefit, and ‘Jaitbynriew’ should survive.