From CK Nayak
NEW DELHI, April 1: A ‘Great Himalayan Earthquake’ of magnitude 8+ is overdue in India particularly in the Northeast part, will be catastrophic, according to Dr Eilia Jafar, a seasoned expert in disaster management.
“Particularly in Northeast India the Indian plate is subducting beneath Sunda and Burma plates which could cause subduction earthquakes and devastating tsunamis. Even central and Peninsular India is at risk of rare but deadly intra-plate earthquakes like the Latur earthquake in 1993,” she said.
The recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand killed over 2,000 people and injured over 4,000. “Such incidents in our neighbouring countries serve as a wake-up call for us to reflect on how prepared we are to deal with such a situation if it were to happen in India,” she added in a published article.
Experts warn there is a very high probability a major earthquake will hit India including the Northeast part. “And when it does, it can be worse than what we are witnessing in Myanmar if it hits big densely populated cities like Delhi or Guwahati,” the expert said.
India sits on one of the world’s most earthquake-prone regions and about 59% of India faces earthquake risk. Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, and Northeast states face the highest risk. Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata lie in dangerous seismic zones as Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates crash together, creating enormous pressure under the Himalayas, she said.
Buildings keep rising without proper earthquake protection.
When earthquakes hit, falling buildings kill more people than shaking ground, she said. Each time a disaster strikes, the response follows a predictable pattern — initial shock, a burst of quick fixes, and then a slow slide into dangerous complacency. The urgency fades, lessons are forgotten, and the cycle continues.
Bur countries like Japan and Chile, having learned from past catastrophes, have taken proactive steps to reduce destruction. They have built earthquake-resistant structures, enforced stringent building codes, and developed robust early warning systems. Their commitment to preparedness has saved countless lives.
India, despite facing similar — if not greater — seismic threats, has yet to adopt such measures on a nationwide scale. We know the risks. We have seen the devastation. And yet, we wait, she said. Earthquakes also wreck economies and claim lives. India lost about USD 79.5 billion to climate disasters over twenty years.