Signals from 2024

Speculations about an early retirement for evergreen Prime Minister Narendra Modi – raised by a senior Shiv Sena leader – may not have any grain of truth. Modi has hectored the nation with a high sense of confidence; and his confidence kept growing due also to the weak positioning of the Opposition. The political and economic stability he provided to the nation has been his great strength. Both are supplementary and complementary to each other. While nations in the neighbourhood struggled with a deficit of both in recent times, India has been an oasis of peace for most part – and not to ignore the scenario in isolated regions like Manipur. Even the terrorist-extremist-militant outfits have been kept under control in Kashmir and the once volatile North-East, through the past decade. Situations perhaps conspired to create the present scenario much to Modi’s advantage. On the development front too, there has been a spectacular march forward in some matters like highway development. Overall, in a general sense, Modi has not let the nation down. Any perception about the PM’s replacement is, thus, not based on ground realities.
Yet, the question is whether India should carry on and on under the same leader for ages. The US, from where the system of democracy gathers its main inspiration, does not allow its chief executive in the form of President to remain in the saddle for more than eight years. Change is in the order of things. Even the same party need not carry on and on, as Americans repeatedly reinforced through successive elections. The two party system in itself is America’s great strength. Crooks there cannot barge in from the sidelines and spoil the nation’s governance – unlike in India where crafty regional sharks are waiting in the wings, or even scheming, to wear the crown in Delhi. For the BJP, to its advantage, there is a strong second line of leadership. Choosing one among them is an easy exercise. Hence, it would be in the fitness of things if Modi does not attempt another term. He has the mandate to rule for four more years. It will be well advised that he hangs up his boots and gives way to a new leader at the right time.
It would be imprudent on those outside the party to propose any name for replacement. The decision, as and when it comes, would be based on the thinking and will of the RSS. Modi’s meeting with the Sangh leadership in Nagpur may or may not have any serious significance. Yet, there are the imponderables. Modi failed to get a majority for the BJP and its alliance in the 2024 polls. It meant the people had already begun having some reservations on his continuation. The scenario under him could be worse by the time the next polls are held in 2029. The RSS cannot afford to overlook the signals from 2024.