Indications are that the South Asia region is increasingly getting caught in a geopolitical power play. India perhaps unwittingly gave the US the role of mediating a ceasefire after Pakistan sent an SOS to President Donald Trump. Now, he’s expressing an interest or rather a resolve to end the “thousand-year-old” Kashmir problem. Just a few months into his second term, Trump is reaching out to the South Asia region in other ways too, as is evident in the US meddling in Myanmar in the cover of a humanitarian assistance to militants –the Arakan Army — in the restive Rakhine state, which borders Bangladesh.
Reports were that some senior US officials quietly flew down to Bangladesh to oversee not just humanitarian aid but also arms support to rebel fighters in Myanmar. The setting up of a “humanitarian corridor” through Bangladesh to the restive Myanmar region is part of a UN initiative. But sections of the population within Bangladesh are seeing red. They have started criticising the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government for such “dangerous drifts” from established foreign policy objectives, even as his government is not an elected one. Obviously, Bangladesh in the post-Hasina phase is undergoing a major churning. Americans’ interests in the geopolitical region are well-documented. With the Myanmar dictators edging closer to China, Americans are keen on working out counter-strategies. Democracy’s angel, Aung San Suu Kyi, who headed the National League for Democracy and was part of the power structure for some years, is currently languishing in jail through an iteration of sentences for unending years. On the other hand, the hapless nation is inviting more trouble to itself. All these are bound to have serious implications for India in the eastern sector, where fissiparous tendencies are generally under control now. Yet, a spark can ignite a fire. India cannot afford to be a silent witness to the US and Chinese games. It has to be keeping a close watch on the evolving situations in both Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Muhammad Yunus has obviously bitten more than he can chew – with internal dissent palpable against his government on the one side and India’s growing military might sending new signals to him, on the other. When the Indian military targeted Pakistan earlier this month, squirming in his chair was Yunus too, who threw a new protective ring there around the minority communities, mainly Hindus. The military brass in Bangladesh is having its reservations over the way Yunus conducted himself in recent months. Those among them who might perhaps have fancied restoration of a Pakistani link should now be a chastened lot. The political and governance systems in Bangladesh would take more time to stabilize in the post-Hasina era. This too poses new challenges for India in the eastern sector. In other words, India’s attention will remain equally divided between its western and eastern borders, while China would not give India any comfort along the northern borders.
